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FREEKONOMIST
Investigation · last 24 hours

Iran, Hormuz and the US: who hit whom in 24 hours

Overnight the US struck Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after the IRGC fired at a US aircraft. Iran claims downed drones and tankers on mines; the US does not confirm. Talks in Doha go on in parallel. Every event on the map and minute by minute, each with its source and a note on whether it is confirmed.

Updated: 3 Nov 2026, 14:20 UTC. Window: 2 Nov 14:00 UTC to 3 Nov 14:00 UTC.
15events on the map
6strikes and attacks on ships
7unconfirmed or disputed
0attacks on US bases in 24h (per media)

The map: what happened where

Persian GulfEstrecho de OrmuzGulf of OmanRed SeaArabian SeaIRANIrakArabia SauditaKuwaitCatarEAUOmánYemenBahrainJordaniaAfganistánPakistánTurkeySiriaIsraelEgiptoAl UdeidUS 5th FleetAl DhafraCamp ArifjanQeshmBandar AbbasTehranDohaJizanDammamSaadaJerusalemMuscatRiyadh← Washington123456789101112131415
EE. UU.Iran / IRGCHouthisUnknownStatements and talksUS base (no attacks in 24h)Dashed outline = unconfirmed

"Night" points are the night of 2-3 Nov: the US did not disclose the exact strike time; WSJ reported it around 02:48 UTC. The Oman point is approximate.

Minute-by-minute timeline

  1. 1 · Iran / IRGC

    Iran: a tanker hit a mine

    Iran's navy (via Fars): a tanker using a lane Iran calls "unauthorised" in the eastern strait, with navigation switched off, hit a mine. The US says the southern lanes are safe. No independent confirmation.

    Denied by the other side
  2. 2 · Statements and talks

    Iran and Russia: Rezaei calls Putin

    Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei discussed "strategic cooperation" with Putin and thanked him for support. Reported by Iranian media (Tasnim) only.

    One side's claim
  3. 3 · Houthis

    Houthis: drones at Saudi Arabia

    Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree claimed drone strikes on Dammam airport, a radar in Jizan and a military transport plane at Jizan airport. Saudi Arabia neither confirmed nor denied.

    One side's claim
  4. 4 · Houthis

    Houthis: 109 Saudi-led air strikes in 24 hours

    The Houthis say the coalition made 109 air strikes in 24 hours on Saada, Taiz, Lahj, Al-Jawf and Hodeidah. Unverified.

    One side's claim
  5. 5 · Statements and talks

    Oil: down 7% on deal hopes

    Brent fell about 7% to ~$105 after reports of a letter from VP Vance to Iran seeking new talks.

    Officially confirmed
  6. 6 · Statements and talks

    Netanyahu pushes Trump

    Per AP, Netanyahu is pushing for a new air campaign against Iran after the US midterms. Officials say Trump is undecided. Israel did not comment.

    One side's claim
  7. 7 · Statements and talks

    Trump: "We haven't been fighting for months"

    Trump at the Lincoln Memorial: "we haven't been doing any fighting for months". An hour later on Truth Social: a deal "could happen", Iran "wants a settlement, as soon as possible". Vance: "We've certainly made some progress". The Qeshm strike came the same night.

    Officially confirmed
  8. 8 · Iran / IRGC

    IRGC fires at a US aircraft

    US officials say an IRGC air-defence missile was fired from Qeshm Island at a US aircraft over the Strait of Hormuz. The National: before that a surface-to-air missile downed a US drone east of the strait. A US official says such fire has been routine "for the past few weeks". Iran has not commented on this shot.

    Officially confirmed
  9. 9 · EE. UU.

    US strikes Qeshm Island

    A US Air Force fighter destroyed an IRGC surface-to-air launcher on Qeshm. Three US officials called it a "limited defensive strike", not a return to war. WSJ: the latest in a series of secret strikes in recent weeks. CENTCOM has made no formal statement. Iranian media: five explosions on Qeshm, more on Hengam island and near Bandar Abbas. No casualties reported.

    Officially confirmed
  10. 10 · Iran / IRGC

    IRGC: three US drones downed

    The IRGC says its electronic warfare downed two MQM-170 recon drones south of Qeshm and destroyed an MQ-9 Reaper east of the strait. Al Jazeera reports two LUCAS drones over the Bandar Khamir coast. Iranian media showed footage; the US has not confirmed the losses.

    One side's claim
  11. 11 · Iran / IRGC

    IRGC: three tankers blew up on mines

    IRGC: three tankers crossed the strait "without permission" and hit naval mines. No flags or owners named. Iran's state broadcaster claims 11 tankers burned since 25 Oct. CENTCOM's Adm. Cooper: routes are "free and clear"; CENTCOM has called such IRGC claims false before. Yet UKMTO counted 30 attacks on ships in October, a record.

    Denied by the other side
  12. 12 · Unknown

    Indian vessel hit off Oman: 1 dead

    India's shipping minister: Indian-flagged MSV Al Jusufi was hit by an "unidentified aerial object" off Oman. One Indian crew member was killed, 13 rescued by Oman's coast guard. The attacker is unknown; the exact spot was not given, the map point is approximate.

    Officially confirmed
  13. 13 · Statements and talks

    Ghalibaf: "The ball is in America's court"

    Parliament speaker and chief negotiator Ghalibaf: any US strategic error opens "a new battlefield", Iran is at top readiness, and the response is agreed "without geographical limits". Ex-FM Mottaki: US bases in the UK, Italy, Portugal and Germany could be drawn in. Hamshahri: Iran updated its "target bank" with US bases in Europe.

    Officially confirmed
  14. 14 · Statements and talks

    Iran's FM: "We were attacked first"

    Deputy FM Gharibabadi (ISNA): Iran "retains the right to legitimate self-defence" after the Qeshm strikes and says it was attacked first. FM Araghchi: Iran has no hostility to Gulf states, praising the "positive role" of Qatar and Oman.

    Officially confirmed
  15. 15 · Statements and talks

    Qatar: working toward an interim deal

    Qatari FM spokesman Majed al-Ansari: mediators relay proposals in real time, aiming for an interim deal. Reuters source: feedback on the new proposal expected within 36 hours. Iran offers a 2-day reopening period (down from 7), Qatar suggests 5. Iran's terms unchanged: frozen assets, end of blockade and sanctions, end of fighting on all fronts.

    Officially confirmed

Who started it?

The short answer depends on where you start counting. Here are both scales.

The big war: since 28 February

The US and Israel launch joint strikes on Iran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is killed. Iran shuts the Strait of Hormuz and hits US bases in the region. [9] Wikipedia

A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire after 40 days of war. [9] Wikipedia

The US imposes a naval blockade on Iranian ports. It is still in force, with thousands of US troops off Iran. [9] Wikipedia

The IRGC routinely fires at US aircraft and drones over the strait and attacks ships. The US carries out small secret strikes. UKMTO counted a record 30 attacks on ships in October. [2] NBC News

AP and WSJ satellite analysis: 274 damaged structures at 24 US military sites, more than 115 drone and missile attacks by Iran or its proxies. [8] The Week (AP, WSJ)

The last 24 hours: two versions

The US version

The IRGC fired first: an air-defence missile from Qeshm at a US aircraft over the strait. The strike on the launcher was "limited" and "defensive", not a return to war.

Iran's version

Iran was attacked first and keeps its right to self-defence. The IRGC downs US drones over its territory. If the US makes a mistake, the response will have "no geographical limits".

We do not pick a side. There is no independent data on who fired first that night: there are US officials' words and Iranian officials' words. Both are shown.

Who said what, and who blamed whom

"We haven't been doing any fighting for months."

Donald Trump, 2 Nov, hours before the strike [1] CBS News

"We had a war with Iran. We won."

Donald Trump, 2 Nov [4] The National

"We've certainly made some progress."

VP JD Vance [1] CBS News

"The ball is now in America's court to prevent a war."

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's parliament speaker, 3 Nov [3] Euronews

"If our war is to break out, it will no longer be a regional war."

Manouchehr Mottaki, ex-FM of Iran [3] Euronews

Iran "retains the right to legitimate self-defense."

Kazem Gharibabadi, deputy FM, 3 Nov [1] CBS News

The aim is "an interim deal."

Majed al-Ansari, Qatar FM spokesman, 3 Nov [1] CBS News

Routes through the strait are "free and clear."

Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM [1] CBS News

US bases: what about them

In these 24 hours no major outlet reported new strikes on US bases in the region. The map marks the main ones: Al Udeid (Qatar), 5th Fleet HQ (Bahrain), Al Dhafra (UAE), Camp Arifjan (Kuwait). The threat was verbal: Tehran talks of US bases in Europe as possible targets. [3] Euronews[8] The Week (AP, WSJ)

Why it matters for markets

About a fifth of the world's oil goes through Hormuz. On 2 Nov Brent fell about 7% to ~$105 on deal hopes, and after the overnight strike rose 0.5% to $105.25 in Asian trade. Each strike or deal headline moves oil, and with it inflation, rates and crypto. [1] CBS News[4] The National Brent now →

Fuentes

  1. CBS News. Iran War live updates, 2-3 Nov 2026
  2. NBC News. U.S. military carries out limited strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, U.S. officials say
  3. Euronews. Iran warns of 'new battlefield' after reported US strike on Qeshm
  4. The National. US carries out attack on Iran's Qeshm Island
  5. Al Jazeera. Iran war live: 3 tankers explode in Hormuz as mediators hopeful over talks
  6. CBS News. U.S. launches limited strikes on Iranian targets in Strait of Hormuz, officials say
  7. CNN. US military conducts strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island in defensive operation, officials say
  8. The Week (AP, WSJ). Satellite images reveal billions in damage to US bases from Iranian attacks, 1 Nov
  9. Wikipedia. 2026 Iran war ceasefire
  10. The Maritime Executive. CENTCOM says Iran attempts to intimidate shipping with false reports

Statuses: "Officially confirmed" means officials of the side that acted confirmed it. "One side's claim" means nobody else confirmed. "Denied by the other side" means there is a direct denial. If you see a mistake, write to [email protected].