Mexico's inflation speeds up to 3.62% as power and flights get pricier

What the data showed. INEGI's report says the consumer price index rose 0.41% in the first half of October from the previous two weeks. Annual inflation was 3.62%. For comparison, it was 3.45% in September and 3.63% a year earlier, in early October 2025. La Jornada reports the market expected 0.37% and 3.60%, and calls it the fastest pace since June.

What got pricier. Electricity contributed the most: up 18.51% in two weeks. INEGI says a summer tariff subsidy ended in 18 cities, including Monterrey, Mérida and Cancún. Air fares rose 14.77%, professional services 9.55% and household LP gas 1.38%. Tomatoes and limes got cheaper.

Core inflation. This measure leaves out the jumpiest items, food and energy, and central banks use it to judge the trend. It rose to 3.78% from a year earlier, from 3.75% in September. Investing.com says services drove most of the rise.

What it means for rates. The Bank of Mexico has kept its rate at 6.5% since June and aims for 3% inflation. Its next decision is on 5 November. Investing.com reports the board dropped explicit guidance and now decides on fresh data, naming trade tensions and the Middle East among the risks.

Who it affects. People in Mexico, anyone who earns or sends money in pesos, and traders of the dollar/peso pair or Mexican bonds.

Hechos confirmados

• In the first half of October 2026 prices in Mexico rose 0.41% over two weeks and 3.62% from a year earlier.^[1][3]
• In September 2026 Mexico's annual inflation was 3.45%, core 3.75%.^[2]
• Core inflation in the first half of October was 3.78% from a year earlier.^[1][3][4]
• The market expected 0.37% over two weeks and 3.60% annually.^[3]
• Electricity rose 18.51% in two weeks after a summer tariff subsidy ended in 18 cities.^[1][3]
• Air fares rose 14.77% and professional services 9.55%.^[1][3]
• The Bank of Mexico has held its rate at 6.5% since June; its next decision is on 5 November.^[4]
• INEGI's next monthly data comes on 9 November, the next half-month data on 24 November.^[1][2]

Implicaciones

• ConfirmadoMexico's annual inflation rose from 3.45% in September to 3.62% in early October.
• Nuestra lecturaIt will be harder for the Bank of Mexico to cut rates on 5 November.
• Nuestra lecturaPart of the rise is one-off: the electricity subsidy ends every autumn.

Todavía no se sabe

• What the Bank of Mexico decides on 5 November.
• Whether air fares keep rising with oil.
• How the peso reacts.

A quién afecta

Mexico, Latin America. People in Mexico, anyone earning or sending money in pesos, dollar/peso traders

Fuentes

1. INEGI: Índice Nacional de Precios al Consumidor, primera quincena de octubre de 2026 22 de octubre de 2026 · oficial
2. INEGI: Índice Nacional de Precios al Consumidor, septiembre de 2026 8 de octubre de 2026 · oficial
3. La Jornada: Inflación subió a 3.62% en la primera quincena de octubre, afectada por alza de energéticos 22 de octubre de 2026 · medios
4. Investing.com: Инфляция в Мексике ускорилась в октябре, осложняя политику Banxico 22 de octubre de 2026 · medios