US business grows near a 5-year high but raises prices fastest since 2022

PMI is a monthly survey of purchasing managers. They are asked whether orders, output, prices and staff went up compared with the previous month. A reading above 50 means growth, below 50 means decline. Flash data come out before official statistics. The S&P Global survey covers around 650 manufacturers and 500 service providers.

In October the composite index fell to 57.6 from 58.4. That is a two-month low, but still the second-fastest growth since March 2022. The services index slipped to 57.9 from 58.8. The manufacturing PMI edged up instead: 56.0 after 55.9, the best reading since May 2022.

Demand is strong. The new orders index rose to 58.2, according to Reuters, the highest since March 2022. Export orders grew the most since May 2022. Factories are hiring at the fastest pace since March 2012. S&P Global Market Intelligence chief business economist Chris Williamson says the survey is consistent with GDP growing at about a 5% annualized rate.

The flip side is prices. Firms are paying more for oil-based inputs, energy, fuel, freight, steel, aluminum and copper. Supplier delivery times lengthened the most since 2022. The output prices index rose to 59.8, Reuters reports. Williamson writes that this pace suggests consumer inflation is likely to rise further above the Fed's target.

In September the Fed raised its rate by 0.25 percentage point to a 3.75-4.00% range. Economists polled by Reuters expect it to hold at next week's meeting and hike again in December.

Hechos confirmados

• The flash US composite PMI was 57.6 in October 2026 after 58.4 in September, a two-month low.^[1][2]
• September's 58.4 was a five-year high.^[2]
• The services business activity index fell to 57.9 from 58.8, and the manufacturing PMI rose to 56.0 from 55.9, the best since May 2022.^[1]
• The new orders index rose to 58.2, the highest since March 2022.^[1][2]
• Export orders grew the most since May 2022.^[1]
• Factory employment grew at the fastest pace since March 2012.^[1][2]
• Selling prices rose at the fastest pace since August 2022, with the output prices index at 59.8.^[1][2]
• Firms blamed higher costs on oil-based inputs, energy, fuel, freight, steel, aluminum and copper.^[1]
• S&P Global's Chris Williamson said the survey is consistent with US GDP growing at about a 5% annualized rate.^[1]
• The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September to 3.75-4.00%. Economists expect a hold next week and a hike in December.^[2]
• Final October data come out on 2 November for manufacturing and 4 November for services and the composite index.^[1]

Implicaciones

• ConfirmadoThe US economy started the fourth quarter with strong growth.
• ConfirmadoFirms are finding it easier to pass higher costs on to customers, which pushes inflation up.
• Nuestra lecturaData like this support bets on a Fed hike in December, which usually lifts the dollar and weighs on risky assets.

Todavía no se sabe

• How far the final PMI data will differ from the flash.
• How long firms can keep raising prices without losing customers.

A quién afecta

United States. Those who trade the dollar, US stocks, bonds or crypto and follow Fed rates

Fuentes

1. S&P Global: S&P Global Flash US PMI: Business activity growth holds close to five-year high, but selling prices rise at sharpest rate since August 2022 23 de octubre de 2026 · oficial
2. Reuters via Investing.com: US business activity cools in October; strong demand fueling price pressures 23 de octubre de 2026 · medios