US midterm elections: peso falls 1.5%, yields rise, gold slips

The peso. It closed at 18.8385 pesos per dollar. Yahoo compares that with LSEG's Monday reference of 18.5654, because the Bank of Mexico published no official rate that day due to a holiday. The loss was 27.31 centavos, or 1.47%. During the day the rate moved between 18.5279 and 18.8673. In the morning, per La Jornada, the peso traded near 18.67 and was stronger than Friday's close (18.8037 in the interbank market): Mexican markets were shut on Monday for the Day of the Dead. So the size of the fall depends on the starting point.

Dollar and oil. The DXY dollar index, which compares the dollar with a basket of six currencies, rose 0.04% to 101.85. Oil fell more than 7% on Monday. On Tuesday, WTI settled at $96.09 a barrel (down 0.4%) and Brent at $103.60 (down 1.1%).

Bonds and gold. US job openings for September came in at 7.523 million against about 7.15 million expected. The 10-year yield rose about 5.8 basis points to 4.951%. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. Kitco says the strong data raised expectations of a Fed rate hike: the rate stayed at 3.75% to 4.00% last week, but two policymakers favored an immediate 0.25 percentage point increase. Gold fell 0.55% and silver 2.13% to $49.450. Kitco ties this to higher yields and a slightly firmer dollar.

US stocks. The S&P 500 rose 0.36% to 7,568.92. The Nasdaq gained 0.83% to 25,372.01. The Dow Jones fell 0.38% to 51,786.72.

What else matters for the peso. The Bank of Mexico announces its decision this week. The rate is expected to stay the same, and the market will listen to the tone of the statement. JPMorgan analysts warned that if the bank cuts, the peso could fall in a disorderly way, to about 19.50 per dollar. That is their estimate, not a fact.

How to read it. Yahoo links the peso's weakness to the market watching the elections and to tension in the Middle East. Kitco names labor data and yields as the main drivers. This is an overview, not a forecast or advice.

Hechos confirmados

• The Mexican peso closed the November 3 session at 18.8385 per dollar. Against LSEG's Monday reference of 18.5654 (no official Bank of Mexico rate due to a holiday), that is a loss of 27.31 centavos, or 1.47%.^[1]
• During the day the dollar traded between 18.5279 and 18.8673 pesos.^[1]
• The DXY dollar index rose 0.04% to 101.85.^[1]
• On the morning of November 3 the peso traded near 18.67 per dollar. It closed Friday at 18.8037 in the interbank market. Mexican markets were closed Monday for the Day of the Dead.^[2]
• Oil fell more than 7% on Monday.^[2]
• On Tuesday WTI settled at $96.09 a barrel (down 0.4%) and Brent at $103.60 (down 1.1%).^[3]
• US job openings in September were 7.523 million against about 7.15 million expected.^[3]
• The 10-year US Treasury yield rose about 5.8 basis points to 4.951%.^[3]
• Spot gold traded near $3,924.10 an ounce (down 0.55%) and spot silver near $49.450 (down 2.13%).^[3]
• The Fed rate stayed at 3.75% to 4.00% last week, and two policymakers favored an immediate 0.25 percentage point increase.^[3]
• The S&P 500 rose 0.36% to 7,568.92, the Nasdaq 0.83% to 25,372.01, and the Dow Jones fell 0.38% to 51,786.72.^[3]
• The Bank of Mexico announces its rate decision this week; no change is expected. JPMorgan analysts warned of a disorderly peso fall to about 19.50 per dollar if it cuts.^[1]
• The job openings data beat expectations.^[1]

Implicaciones

• ConfirmadoOn election day the peso lost 1.47% against LSEG's reference price, and the 10-year US yield rose.
• ConfirmadoGold and silver fell as yields rose and the dollar firmed.
• Nuestra lecturaThese sources do not show how much of the peso's move came from the vote itself and how much from jobs data, oil and the Middle East. That is our reading.

Todavía no se sabe

• How markets react to the vote count on November 4: this overview does not cover it
• What the Bank of Mexico decides this week
• How Fed rate expectations change after Friday's jobs report

A quién afecta

Global, Mexico, United States. People who pay or earn in dollars and pesos and follow bond yields, gold and US stocks

Fuentes

1. Yahoo Noticias: Peso mexicano pierde 1.5% frente al dólar en mercado cauteloso por elecciones en EU 3 de noviembre de 2026 · medios
2. La Jornada: En el contexto electoral estadunidense y con el petróleo a la baja, el peso mexicano opera en 18.67 por dólar 3 de noviembre de 2026 · medios
3. Kitco: Gold, silver decline as strong U.S. jobs data lifts yields on election day - Kitco PM Report 3 de noviembre de 2026 · medios