China's yuan hits a four-year high against the dollar before a big week

What happened. On the morning of 26 October the onshore yuan reached 6.6682 per dollar. That is its strongest level since June 2022. By 02:52 GMT it traded at 6.6691. The yuan traded outside the mainland (offshore) stood at 6.6688. Since the start of the year the yuan is up 4.87% against the dollar, according to Reuters.

What China's central bank did. Every morning the People's Bank of China sets a midpoint rate through the CFETS trading system. The onshore yuan may move no more than 2% either side of it in a day. On Monday the midpoint was 6.7162 per dollar, the strongest since 2 February 2023. But it was 471 pips weaker than analysts expected in a Reuters estimate (6.6691). That is the largest such gap since 23 September.

Why it matters. A weaker than expected midpoint means the central bank lets the yuan rise but does not want it to rise too fast. That is how traders and analysts cited by Reuters read it. Barclays says the central bank resists a faster pace of gains. Goldman Sachs expects the rise to continue and keeps its 12-month target at 6.40 per dollar.

What is next. The Fed, the Bank of Japan and the ECB are widely expected to keep rates unchanged this week. In Beijing the Communist Party holds its fifth plenum from 26 to 29 October. We give no currency forecasts and no advice to buy or sell.

Hechos confirmados

• On 26 October 2026 the yuan's central parity rate against the dollar, published by CFETS on behalf of the People's Bank of China, was 6.7162.^[1]
• That is the strongest midpoint since 2 February 2023; it was 471 pips weaker than a Reuters estimate of 6.6691, the largest weak-side gap since 23 September.^[2]
• The onshore yuan may trade no more than 2% either side of the midpoint each day.^[2]
• The onshore yuan rose to 6.6682 per dollar, the strongest since June 2022, and traded at 6.6691 at 02:52 GMT; the offshore yuan stood at 6.6688.^[2]
• The onshore yuan is up 4.87% against the dollar year to date.^[2]
• If the gains hold at the close, it will be an eighth straight session of rises, the longest winning streak since May.^[2]
• Softer oil prices and lower US Treasury yields weighed on the dollar.^[2]
• Barclays says China's central bank resists a faster pace of appreciation through weaker than expected fixings.^[2]
• Goldman Sachs keeps its 12-month yuan target at 6.40 per dollar.^[2]
• The Fed, the Bank of Japan and the ECB are widely expected to keep rates unchanged this week; China's fifth plenum is under way.^[2]

Implicaciones

• ConfirmadoChina's central bank lets the yuan strengthen but manages the pace, according to traders and analysts cited by Reuters.
• Nuestra lecturaA stronger yuan makes imports cheaper for China and Chinese exports a bit dearer for buyers paying in dollars.
• Nuestra lecturaFed and Bank of Japan decisions this week could move the dollar and, with it, the yuan.

Todavía no se sabe

• Whether the yuan keeps its gains at the late-night close on 26 October.
• What the Fed, the Bank of Japan and the ECB decide and what they say about next steps.
• Whether the plenum brings economic decisions: the first report speaks of party discipline.

A quién afecta

China, Global markets. People who buy goods from China, pay or receive yuan, or follow the dollar and Asian markets

Fuentes

1. CFETS (China Foreign Exchange Trade System): CNY Central Parity Rate, 26/10/2026 9:15 (CCT) 26 de octubre de 2026 · oficial
2. Reuters: China's yuan climbs to fresh 4-year high ahead of key policy meetings 26 de octubre de 2026 · medios