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Turkey cuts rates to 36% as inflation dips below 30% for the first time since 2021

Turkey's central bank cut its key rate from 37% to 36% because inflation is slowing, but warned that expensive energy could still spoil the picture.

الحدث: 22 أكتوبر 2026
المصدر الأساسي: 22 أكتوبر 2026
نُشر هنا: 22 أكتوبر 2026 في 01:00 م UTC
اقرأ: 2 دقيقة

ماذا حدث

On 22 October Turkey's central bank cut its key rate (the one-week repo) from 37% to 36%. Overnight rates also fell by a point: lending to 39%, borrowing to 34.5%. In September the rate was held at 37%. Official annual inflation fell to 29.73% in September, below 30% for the first time since November 2021.

لماذا يهمك

If you hold lira, keep savings in a Turkish bank or borrow there, rates on those will slowly move down. For markets it signals that Turkey is starting to ease carefully. But the bank says plainly that energy prices, pushed up by geopolitics, remain the main risk.

ماذا تتحقق منه وتراقبه

October inflation, which Turkey publishes in early November. Oil and gas prices. And the lira against the dollar: if things get much worse, the bank promises to tighten again.

The central bank's decision

What the bank decided. The Monetary Policy Committee, chaired by Governor Fatih Karahan, cut the one-week repo rate by 100 basis points, or one percentage point, to 36%. The corridor moved down too: the overnight lending rate is now 39% instead of 40%, the overnight borrowing rate 34.5% instead of 35.5%. At the previous meeting on 10 September everything was left unchanged.

Why now. The bank's statement says recent inflation data and leading indicators confirm that the underlying trend is slowing, and domestic demand remains weak. According to TurkStat, prices rose 1.84% in September from August and 29.73% from a year earlier, down from 31.51% in August.

The catch. The bank writes that high energy prices due to geopolitical tensions are an upside risk to inflation. The size and timing of next steps will be decided meeting by meeting, and policy will be tightened if the outlook deteriorates significantly. Turkish Minute reports that the independent ENAG group puts September's annual inflation much higher, at about 46.6%.

Who it affects. People in Turkey with lira deposits and loans, people who send money to Turkey or live there on savings, and investors in Turkish bonds and shares. The bank's medium-term goal is still 5% inflation.

حقائق مؤكدة

  • On 22 October 2026 Turkey's central bank cut its key rate (the one-week repo) from 37% to 36%.[1][3]
  • The overnight lending rate was cut from 40% to 39% and the overnight borrowing rate from 35.5% to 34.5%.[1]
  • On 10 September 2026 the bank kept its rate at 37%.[2][4]
  • The bank says recent data confirm a slowing underlying inflation trend and weak domestic demand.[1]
  • The bank calls high energy prices linked to geopolitics an upside risk and says it will tighten if the outlook deteriorates significantly.[1]
  • Turkey's annual inflation was 29.73% in September 2026, below 30% for the first time since November 2021, down from 31.51% in August.[4]
  • The independent ENAG group estimated September's annual inflation at 46.61%.[4]
  • The bank's medium-term inflation target is 5%.[1]

التبعات

  • مؤكدTurkey's key rate is a point lower, and the overnight corridor moved down with it.
  • قراءتناRates on lira deposits and loans at Turkish banks are likely to start falling too.
  • قراءتناIf oil and gas keep getting pricier, further cuts may not come.

لا يزال مجهولًا

  • Whether more cuts follow and how big: the bank decides at each meeting.
  • How quickly banks lower deposit and loan rates.
  • How the lira reacts in the coming weeks.

من يتأثر

Turkey, Emerging markets. People in Turkey with lira deposits and loans, people sending money there, investors in Turkish assets

المصادر

  1. Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye: Press Release on Interest Rates (2026-45) 22 أكتوبر 2026 · رسمي
  2. Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye: Press Release on Interest Rates (2026-38) 10 سبتمبر 2026 · رسمي
  3. Investing.com: ЦБ Турции снизил ставку на 100 б.п. до 36% 22 أكتوبر 2026 · إعلام
  4. Turkish Minute: Turkey's annual inflation slows to 29.7 percent in September 5 أكتوبر 2026 · إعلام
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الغلاف: رسم Freekonomist، صورة رمزية، لا صورة للحدث. هذا شرح إخباري، لا نصيحة مالية.

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