Turkey cuts rates to 36% as inflation dips below 30% for the first time since 2021

What the bank decided. The Monetary Policy Committee, chaired by Governor Fatih Karahan, cut the one-week repo rate by 100 basis points, or one percentage point, to 36%. The corridor moved down too: the overnight lending rate is now 39% instead of 40%, the overnight borrowing rate 34.5% instead of 35.5%. At the previous meeting on 10 September everything was left unchanged.

Why now. The bank's statement says recent inflation data and leading indicators confirm that the underlying trend is slowing, and domestic demand remains weak. According to TurkStat, prices rose 1.84% in September from August and 29.73% from a year earlier, down from 31.51% in August.

The catch. The bank writes that high energy prices due to geopolitical tensions are an upside risk to inflation. The size and timing of next steps will be decided meeting by meeting, and policy will be tightened if the outlook deteriorates significantly. Turkish Minute reports that the independent ENAG group puts September's annual inflation much higher, at about 46.6%.

Who it affects. People in Turkey with lira deposits and loans, people who send money to Turkey or live there on savings, and investors in Turkish bonds and shares. The bank's medium-term goal is still 5% inflation.

已确认的事实

• On 22 October 2026 Turkey's central bank cut its key rate (the one-week repo) from 37% to 36%.^[1][3]
• The overnight lending rate was cut from 40% to 39% and the overnight borrowing rate from 35.5% to 34.5%.^[1]
• On 10 September 2026 the bank kept its rate at 37%.^[2][4]
• The bank says recent data confirm a slowing underlying inflation trend and weak domestic demand.^[1]
• The bank calls high energy prices linked to geopolitics an upside risk and says it will tighten if the outlook deteriorates significantly.^[1]
• Turkey's annual inflation was 29.73% in September 2026, below 30% for the first time since November 2021, down from 31.51% in August.^[4]
• The independent ENAG group estimated September's annual inflation at 46.61%.^[4]
• The bank's medium-term inflation target is 5%.^[1]

影响

• 已确认Turkey's key rate is a point lower, and the overnight corridor moved down with it.
• 我们的解读Rates on lira deposits and loans at Turkish banks are likely to start falling too.
• 我们的解读If oil and gas keep getting pricier, further cuts may not come.

仍未知

• Whether more cuts follow and how big: the bank decides at each meeting.
• How quickly banks lower deposit and loan rates.
• How the lira reacts in the coming weeks.

影响到谁

Turkey, Emerging markets. People in Turkey with lira deposits and loans, people sending money there, investors in Turkish assets

来源

1. Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye: Press Release on Interest Rates (2026-45) 2026年10月22日 · 官方
2. Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye: Press Release on Interest Rates (2026-38) 2026年9月10日 · 官方
3. Investing.com: ЦБ Турции снизил ставку на 100 б.п. до 36% 2026年10月22日 · 媒体
4. Turkish Minute: Turkey's annual inflation slows to 29.7 percent in September 2026年10月5日 · 媒体