Ryanair profit falls 15% as fuel bites, fares set to rise in 2027

What happened. On November 2 Ryanair published results for the first half of its 2027 financial year (April to September 2026). Profit after tax was 2.15 billion euros, down 15% from 2.54 billion a year earlier. Revenue rose 3% to 10.08 billion euros. Passengers reached 125.8 million, up 6%. Load factor was 95%.

Why profit fell. Ryanair locked in the price of 80% of its fuel in advance, at about $67 a barrel. It buys the other 20% at market prices, and that part doubled to about $130. Operating costs rose 10% to 7.69 billion euros. At the same time the average fare fell 4%: the company says the Middle East conflict made people hesitant and they booked later.

What comes next. The company says this year's earnings are well insulated by hedging (fuel bought in advance). But the cheap contracts roll off before summer 2027. Only 25% of next year's fuel is covered, at about $95. Ryanair estimates its fuel bill will rise by about 2 billion euros at current forward prices. It expects European short-haul fares to rise materially, but says that is unlikely to cover the full cost. So it is reviewing all costs, including airport deals, crew ratios and more use of AI, and says maturing labour agreements may require temporary pay freezes.

Money for shareholders. Ryanair declared an interim dividend of 0.273 euros per share, payable in late February 2027, and a new 800 million euro share buyback starting in February.

Passengers and planes. The full-year target was cut from 216 to 214 million passengers, so winter traffic will be broadly flat. For summer 2027 it expects its first 16 Boeing MAX-10s and plans more than 220 million passengers. It is moving flights to countries that cut aviation taxes and away from Austria, Germany and regional Spain.

What is not known. There is no full-year profit guidance: the company says it has zero visibility on the fourth quarter. The report gives no number for how much fares will rise. This is an overview, not advice.

حقائق مؤكدة

• Ryanair's profit after tax for the first half of its 2027 financial year was 2.15 billion euros, down 15% from 2.54 billion a year earlier.^[1][2]
• Traffic grew 6% to 125.8 million passengers while the average fare fell 4% to 55.70 euros.^[1]
• Revenue rose 3% to 10.08 billion euros and operating costs rose 10% to 7.69 billion euros.^[1]
• The price of the unhedged 20% of jet fuel doubled to about $130 a barrel. 80% of fuel for the 2027 financial year is hedged at about $67.^[1][2]
• 25% of fuel for the 2028 financial year is hedged at about $95 a barrel.^[1]
• Ryanair estimates a fuel bill increase of about 2 billion euros in the 2028 financial year at current forward prices and expects European short-haul fares to increase materially.^[1][2]
• The company says maturing labour agreements may require temporary pay freezes.^[1][2]
• It declared an interim dividend of 0.273 euros per share (payable in late February 2027) and an 800 million euro buyback starting in February.^[1]
• The 2027 financial year traffic target was cut from 216 to 214 million passengers. The company gives no full-year profit guidance.^[1]

التبعات

• مؤكدRyanair expects short-haul fares in Europe to rise noticeably in 2027.
• قراءتناAirlines with less fuel hedging may be hit harder than Ryanair. This is our view, based on the company's comments about its cost advantage.
• قراءتناOil prices remain the main risk to airline profits in 2027. This is our view.

لا يزال مجهولًا

• Ryanair's full-year profit guidance
• By what percentage fares will rise
• Whether pay will be frozen, and for which staff
• Where oil prices will be by summer 2027

من يتأثر

Europe, World. People who fly around Europe and investors in airlines and oil

المصادر

1. Ryanair Holdings plc (RNS, London Stock Exchange): H1 FY27 Ryanair Holdings plc Earnings 2 نوفمبر 2026 · رسمي
2. BBC News: Ryanair may freeze workers' pay and raise fares on higher fuel prices 2 نوفمبر 2026 · إعلام