Weight loss drugs lift Eli Lilly's sales 39% as LLY stock jumps

What happened. On 29 October Eli Lilly, the US maker of Mounjaro and Zepbound, reported results for the third quarter of 2026. Revenue was $24.4 billion, up 39% from the same quarter last year. Analysts had expected about $22.6 billion, according to LSEG data cited by CNBC. Earnings per share excluding one-off items (non-GAAP) were $7.48, up 7%. On a reported (GAAP) basis they were $7.22, up 16%.

The two drugs. Mounjaro brought in $10.7 billion, up 65%. Zepbound brought in $5.35 billion, up 49%. Together that is about $16.1 billion in one quarter. Both contain tirzepatide. In the US, Mounjaro is sold for type 2 diabetes and Zepbound for obesity. In most other countries, CNBC notes, Mounjaro is the brand name for both.

More doses, lower prices. Sales volume rose 53%, while the average price Lilly realized fell 15%. In the US, volume rose 41% and prices fell 7%. Outside the US, volume rose 76% and prices fell 29%, mainly because Mounjaro was added to China's national reimbursement drug list. Lilly also puts about $900 million of the quarter's revenue down to one-off benefits: mostly $410 million of Jardiance milestones and favourable changes to rebate and discount estimates. No further Jardiance milestones remain.

The outlook. Lilly raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $91 billion to $92 billion, from $85 billion to $87 billion. Its earnings-per-share forecast went the other way, to $35.00 to $36.00 from $35.50 to $36.50. Lilly says this is because of $4.57 per share in charges for acquired research from deals in the quarter. They more than offset a $4.07 rise in underlying guidance at the midpoint. CNBC reports the shares rose more than 6% on Thursday to about $1,370, a record high. Barron's puts the gain at 6.23%.

Room to grow, and a weak spot. Chief executive David Ricks told CNBC he estimates about 3% of eligible patients worldwide, and about 10% in the US, access obesity care. A temporary 18-month Medicare pilot that began on 1 July lets eligible patients get the drugs for $50 a month. CNBC reports more than half a million people have filled a prescription for a Lilly medicine through it. The weak spot was Foundayo, Lilly's obesity pill (orforglipron): $184 million of revenue against the $229 million analysts expected (FactSet data cited by CNBC).

Our take. For now, demand is growing faster than prices are falling. Whether that holds in 2027 is the big question. This is a report on one company's results. It is not medical advice and not advice to buy or sell any stock.

حقائق مؤكدة

• Eli Lilly's third-quarter 2026 revenue rose 39% to $24.4 billion, driven primarily by Mounjaro and Zepbound.^[1]
• Analysts expected revenue of about $22.6 billion (LSEG consensus).^[2]
• Mounjaro revenue was $10.7 billion (up 65%) and Zepbound $5.35 billion (up 49%).^[1][2]
• Sales volume rose 53% and realized prices fell 15%.^[1]
• In the US, volume rose 41% and prices fell 7%. Outside the US, volume rose 76% and prices fell 29%.^[1]
• About $900 million of the quarter's revenue was one-off benefits, mainly $410 million of Jardiance milestones and changes to rebate and discount estimates.^[1]
• Non-GAAP earnings per share were $7.48 (up 7%) and reported EPS $7.22 (up 16%).^[1]
• The 2026 revenue forecast was raised to $91 billion to $92 billion from $85 billion to $87 billion.^[1][2]
• The EPS forecast was cut to $35.00 to $36.00 from $35.50 to $36.50 because of $4.57 per share in acquired research charges.^[1]
• LLY shares rose more than 6% on Thursday to about $1,370, according to CNBC. Barron's cites a 6.23% gain.^[2][3]
• Ricks estimates about 3% of eligible patients worldwide, and about 10% in the US, access obesity care.^[2]
• A temporary 18-month Medicare pilot from 1 July lets eligible patients get the drugs for $50 a month. CNBC reports more than half a million people have filled a prescription for a Lilly medicine through it.^[2]
• Foundayo revenue was $184 million against a FactSet consensus of $229 million.^[2]
• Lilly will give full 2027 guidance on its fourth-quarter earnings call.^[2]

التبعات

• مؤكدLilly's growth now rests on selling more doses, not on higher prices.
• قراءتناIf volume growth slows, falling prices would hit revenue harder.
• قراءتناWider insurance programs may bring more patients to obesity treatment.

لا يزال مجهولًا

• What 2027 outlook Lilly will give on its next earnings call.
• How long volume growth will keep outrunning falling prices.
• What happens to the Medicare pilot when its 18 months end.
• Whether Foundayo closes the gap with the rival obesity pill.

من يتأثر

United States, Worldwide. Readers who follow the weight loss drug market and pharma earnings

المصادر

1. Eli Lilly and Company: Lilly reports third-quarter 2026 financial results, raises full-year guidance and highlights regulatory progress across the portfolio 29 أكتوبر 2026 · رسمي
2. CNBC: We're raising our Eli Lilly price target as obesity-drug boom continues 29 أكتوبر 2026 · إعلام
3. Barron's: Eli Lilly Stock Jumps on Monster Earnings Powered by Mounjaro and Zepbound 29 أكتوبر 2026 · إعلام