Gasoline rollback: P12.50 to P13.50 a liter seen in the Philippines

What is known. Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas told journalists that, based on trading and exchange rates as of Thursday, November 5, gasoline in the Philippines may fall P12.50 to P13.50 per liter and diesel P4.30 to P4.50. He said the figures exclude adjustments to ocean freight and insurance relative to last week. If the estimates hold, it would be the first double-digit rollback for gasoline, Bellas says. Top Line gives similar numbers: P13 to P14 for gasoline and P4 to P5 for diesel.

When. Oil firms are set to announce the changes on Monday, and they take effect the next day, Tuesday, November 10. The sources do not give a time of day. The estimates rest on the first four trading days of MOPS, the pricing basis for refined fuels in Southeast Asia. The market was still waiting for the final day. The country is under a national energy emergency, and the Department of Energy (DOE) can set maximum price hikes and minimum rollbacks for oil companies.

Why prices are falling. Bellas says oil weakened this week as diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran conflict eased fears of renewed escalation. Gasoline and diesel also fell on expectations of higher supply, after South Korea eased diesel restrictions and China added an export quota. For gasoline he also pointed to a healthy supply outlook from China. The peso strengthened to the 62 level against the US dollar from 64 on October 27. Crude fell more than 8% on Wednesday, with both major contracts finishing under $100 a barrel.

What sources say about politics. Bellas said a perception of a lower chance of escalation after the Democratic Party's wins in the US midterms also pressured prices. Brigitte Carmel Lapasaran Lim of Top Line said the results create more room for de-escalation, and that local pump prices will ultimately depend on international fuel prices, foreign exchange and other factors. These are their views, and we only relay them. The sources also note that supply risks remain, with attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and on Saudi energy infrastructure continuing.

What to watch. Monday's announcements will show the exact cuts for gasoline, diesel and kerosene. Kerosene is not mentioned in the sources we opened. On November 7 the DOE price adjustments page listed its latest notice as November 3 to 9. For context, global fuel prices have risen since the war in the region began in late February, and local pump prices reached P100 per liter at one point. We covered crude separately: see our November 5 story on Brent crude.

Hechos confirmados

• Jetti Petroleum estimates next week's gasoline cut in the Philippines at P12.50 to P13.50 per liter and diesel at P4.30 to P4.50.^[1][2][3]
• Jetti Petroleum's figures exclude adjustments to ocean freight and insurance relative to last week.^[3]
• Top Line estimates a cut of P13 to P14 for gasoline and P4 to P5 for diesel.^[2]
• Oil firms will announce prices on Monday, and they take effect the next day. Inquirer gives the date as November 10.^[1][2]
• The estimates are based on the first four trading days of MOPS, with the final day still awaited.^[1][2]
• According to Bellas, it would be the first double-digit rollback for gasoline.^[1]
• MOPS is the basis for refined fuel prices in Southeast Asia.^[2]
• The country is under a national energy emergency, and the DOE can set maximum price hikes and minimum rollbacks.^[1]
• Bellas cites lower crude, expected higher supply after South Korea eased diesel restrictions and China added an export quota, and for gasoline a healthy supply outlook from China.^[1][2][3]
• The peso strengthened to the 62 level against the US dollar from 64 on October 27.^[3]
• Bellas says a perception of lower escalation risk after the Democratic Party's wins in the US midterms also pressured prices.^[2][3]
• Crude fell more than 8% on Wednesday, with both major contracts finishing under $100 a barrel.^[2]
• Attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and on Saudi energy infrastructure continue.^[1][2][3]
• Since the war began in late February, global fuel prices have risen and local pump prices reached P100 per liter.^[2]

Implicaciones

• ConfirmadoEstimates for gasoline and diesel agree across sources, but the oil firms' announcements will give the final figures.
• ConfirmadoIndustry sources link the price cuts to a lower risk of escalation after the US midterms. This is their view, not our conclusion.
• Nuestra lecturaA cut of this size is noticeable for anyone who drives a gasoline car, but the result at a given station depends on the company and location. This is our inference.

Todavía no se sabe

• The kerosene price: it is not in the sources we opened
• The final figures and the hour the change takes effect, to be announced by the oil firms
• Which firms will announce and whether their amounts differ
• The result of the last MOPS trading day

A quién afecta

Philippines, Southeast Asia, Global. Drivers and fleet owners in the Philippines, and anyone following fuel prices in Asia

Fuentes

1. The Philippine Star: Pump price rollback: P13 for gas, P4 for diesel 6 de noviembre de 2026 · medios
2. Philippine Daily Inquirer: Big oil price cuts seen, tied to Trump poll rout 6 de noviembre de 2026 · medios
3. Cebu Daily News (Philippine News Agency): Big-time oil price cut seen next week 6 de noviembre de 2026 · medios