Australian consumer sentiment sinks to a four-year low

What happened. Westpac and the Melbourne Institute survey 1,200 adults each month. The November survey ran from November 2 to 6. The main index fell 2.7% to 78.2. Reuters notes it is the third fall in a row, after drops of 5.2% in September and 4.7% in October. Over a year the index is down 24.6%.

How bad is it. Westpac says readings this weak used to appear only in the darkest moments: the start of the pandemic, the height of the 2008 crisis, and the recessions of the early 1990s and early 1980s. The last time it was this low was late 2022, when inflation ran close to 8%.

Why. Petrol is pushing toward A$2.40 a litre, inflation is 4.3%, and the Reserve Bank raised the cash rate another 0.25 points to 4.85%. Of those surveyed after the decision, 72% expect mortgage rates to rise further over the next year.

Housing and jobs. The house price expectations index fell 13.4% to 99.6, the first reading below 100 since November 2022, meaning more people expect prices to fall than rise. The unemployment expectations index rose 1.6% to 144.4. Westpac calls this consumers being 'on edge' rather than alarmed.

Christmas. 38% plan to spend less on gifts than last year, 46% about the same and 14% more. A year ago 36% planned to cut back.

Fatos confirmados

• The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index fell 2.7% to 78.2 in November 2026 from 80.4 in October.^[1][2]
• It is the lowest reading since late 2022.^[1]
• The 'economy, next 12 months' sub-index fell 10.2% to 70.3, the weakest since August 2020.^[1][2]
• Sentiment among mortgage holders fell 11.6% to 68.1, a record low on data going back to 1994.^[1]
• The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates for the fifth time this year, to 4.85%, an 18-year high.^[1][2]
• 72% of those surveyed after the decision expect mortgage rates to rise further over the next 12 months.^[1]
• The house price expectations index fell 13.4% to 99.6, the first reading below 100 since November 2022.^[1]
• The survey of 1,200 adults ran from November 2 to 6, 2026.^[1]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoAustralians are gloomier than at any time in four years, mainly because of rates and prices.
• Nossa leituraWeak sentiment before Christmas could hurt retail sales. This is our inference.
• Nossa leituraGloomy surveys give the Reserve Bank more reason to pause in December. This is our inference.

Ainda não se sabe

• Whether the Reserve Bank pauses on December 7-8
• Whether the gloom shows up in actual Christmas sales
• How fast house prices will fall

Quem é afetado

Australia. People who watch the Australian dollar, interest rates and consumer demand

Fontes

1. Westpac: Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment Bulletin, 10 November 2026 9 de novembro de 2026 · oficial
2. Reuters via MarketScreener: Australian consumer sentiment hits four-year low in November as rates rise 9 de novembro de 2026 · mídia