Yen nears 160 per dollar as BOJ's Asada urges a slower pace of hikes

What Asada said. In his November 12 speech he noted that he voted against the June and September rate hikes. The bank estimates the neutral rate, where policy neither speeds up nor slows the economy, at around slightly above 1% to 2.5%. The 1.25% rate is already inside that range. So, he said, further hikes now hit the economy harder than before.

His argument. In Asada's view, consumer spending is not strong right now. He said recent price rises have not necessarily been driven by demand. He estimates it takes one year or more for the effect of a hike to become clear. His conclusion: the bank should give due consideration to the pace of any hikes.

The yen. Reuters reports the dollar rose to 159.94 yen early Thursday on bets of Fed rate hikes after hot US inflation data. Atsushi Mimura, vice finance minister for international affairs, declined to comment on the level but said moves have been too fast and that "it's still too early to forget what happened this summer." From late July to early August Japan bought yen in the market, once together with the US.

What next. A Reuters poll shows analysts expect a hike to 1.5% in December. One dissenting vote does not block a hike. The speech does not make clear how Asada will vote in December.

Fatos confirmados

• Toichiro Asada spoke in Nagasaki on November 12, 2026, on economic activity, prices and monetary policy.^[1]
• Asada voted against rate hikes at the June and September 2026 meetings; the policy rate is now 1.25%.^[1]
• Asada put the neutral rate at around slightly above 1% to 2.5%, and the policy rate is already in that range.^[1]
• Asada said recent price rises have not necessarily been driven by demand and called for due consideration of the pace of hikes.^[1][2]
• He estimates it takes one year or more for the impact of a rate hike to become clear.^[1]
• The dollar rose to 159.94 yen early on November 12, its highest in over two months.^[3]
• Atsushi Mimura said currency moves have been too fast and that it is still too early to forget what happened this summer.^[3]
• Japan intervened to support the yen from late July to early August, once jointly with the US.^[3]
• Analysts in a Reuters poll expect a hike to 1.5% in December.^[2]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoThe Bank of Japan board is split on the pace of rate hikes.
• Nossa leituraIf the dollar breaks above 160 yen, the odds of another intervention rise.
• Nossa leituraA cautious Bank of Japan while US rates rise could keep the yen weak for longer.

Ainda não se sabe

• How Asada will vote in December.
• Whether Japan's Finance Ministry will intervene, and at what level.
• How much further the Fed will raise rates.

Quem é afetado

Japan, United States, Asia, World. People watching the yen, Japanese stocks and central bank rates

Fontes

1. Bank of Japan: Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan (Speech by ASADA Toichiro in Nagasaki) 12 de novembro de 2026 · oficial
2. Reuters via 102.7 WBOW: Dovish BOJ policymaker Asada pushes back against early rate hike 12 de novembro de 2026 · mídia
3. Reuters via Investing.com: Japan's top currency diplomat renews volatility warning as yen nears key 160 level 12 de novembro de 2026 · mídia