Brazil's central bank: 13.75% Selic to stay high for longer

What happened. Copom, the Central Bank of Brazil's rate committee, published the minutes of its 282nd meeting. On November 3-4 it held the Selic at 13.75% a year, pausing its easing cycle.

The forecast. In the reference scenario the bank sees inflation at 5.6% in 2026, 4.7% in 2027 and 3.5% in the second quarter of 2028, the horizon policy now targets. The goal is 3%.

The key line. Inflation expectations have risen and remain above target at all horizons. The committee says that with de-anchored expectations, policy has to be tighter and stay tight longer than would once have been appropriate.

The economy. Data point to a more pronounced slowdown, mainly in cyclical sectors. The labor market is still resilient, though job growth is easing.

The budget. Copom repeated that slower reforms and fiscal discipline, more earmarked credit and doubts over public debt could lift the neutral interest rate. That would make bringing inflation down more costly for the economy.

Outside Brazil. The bank sees a more adverse global backdrop: pricier oil and tight policy in advanced economies. Inflation risks are higher than usual and tilted up.

Fatos confirmados

• Brazil's central bank released the minutes of the 282nd Copom meeting on November 10, 2026.^[1][2]
• Copom kept the Selic rate at 13.75% a year.^[1][3]
• Inflation projections: 5.6% for 2026, 4.7% for 2027, 3.5% for 2028Q2.^[1]
• Inflation expectations have risen and remain above target at all horizons.^[1][3]
• The committee says de-anchored expectations require tighter policy for longer.^[3]
• Activity is moderating more, mainly in cyclical sectors, while the labor market is resilient.^[1][3]
• Inflation risks are higher than usual, with an upward asymmetry.^[1]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoBrazil's central bank intends to keep rates high until inflation heads to target.
• Nossa leituraA rate cut in the coming months looks unlikely without budget improvement. This is our reading.
• Nossa leituraHigh rates support the real but weigh on credit and growth. This is our reading.

Ainda não se sabe

• When the bank resumes cutting
• Which budget steps the government will take
• How expectations in the Focus survey will move

Quem é afetado

Brazil, Latin America. People holding reais, Brazilian bonds or stocks, or borrowing in Brazil

Fontes

1. Banco Central do Brasil: Minutes of the 282nd Copom meeting (November 3-4, 2026) 10 de novembro de 2026 · oficial
2. Banco Central do Brasil: BC divulga Ata da 282ª reunião do Copom 10 de novembro de 2026 · oficial
3. Agência Brasil: Ata do Copom indica que desaceleração da economia não conteve inflação 10 de novembro de 2026 · mídia