Europe's gas price hits its highest since 2022 as storage sits at 75%

European gas has been getting more expensive for weeks. According to ING, the front-month TTF contract rose 3% on Thursday 22 October and settled above €90 per megawatt-hour, the highest since December 2022. The rise continued on Friday. Anadolu Agency reports the November contract at €93.29 at 2:57 p.m. local time, 6.6% above the previous Friday's close of €87.55. Investing.com reports a 3.8% daily gain to €93.40 and almost 7% for the week.

What is TTF? It is a virtual trading hub for gas in the Netherlands, and its price is the benchmark for Europe. Oilprice.com puts it at more than $30 per million British thermal units, the unit many traders use. For context, the outlet notes that December 2022 was Europe's first winter without most Russian pipeline gas.

Why the rise? The sources point to three reasons. First, tension in the Persian Gulf. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments from the Middle East are about 80% below last year, Anadolu Agency and Investing.com report. ING analysts expect that gas to be largely absent from the market for much of the Northern Hemisphere winter. Second, Europe and Asia are competing for the cargoes that are left. Third, storage is lower than usual.

More on storage. EU sites were 74.62% full on 22 October, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data cited by Oilprice.com and Anadolu Agency. The five-year average for this time of year is about 86%. ING thinks storage has already peaked just under 75%, as stocks fell slightly on Tuesday. So the heating season starts with a smaller cushion.

Britain feels it too. The NBP contract, the UK version of TTF, rose 3.5% to 229 pence per therm on Friday and about 6.2% for the week, Investing.com reports.

What does it mean for ordinary people? This is our reading, not a claim from the sources: if gas stays expensive, it may over time show up in heating and power bills in Europe and in inflation. How fast and how much depends on the country, its tariffs and the weather. We are not forecasting, and this is not investment advice.

Fatos confirmados

• On Thursday 22 October the front-month TTF contract rose 3% and settled above €90 per MWh, the highest since December 2022.^[1]
• On Friday 23 October TTF rose 3.8% to €93.40 per MWh, a weekly gain of almost 7%.^[4]
• At 2:57 p.m. local time on Friday the November TTF contract was at €93.29, 6.6% above the previous Friday's close of €87.55.^[3]
• On Friday morning the price was above $30 per million British thermal units.^[2]
• EU gas storage was 74.62% full on 22 October, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.^[2][3]
• The five-year average storage level for this time of year is about 86%.^[2][4]
• ING says storage appears to have peaked just under 75%, with stocks falling slightly on Tuesday.^[1]
• LNG shipments from the Middle East are about 80% below last year's levels.^[3][4]
• ING analysts expect Gulf LNG to be largely absent from the market for much of the Northern Hemisphere winter.^[1]
• Europe and Asia, the two largest LNG-importing regions, are competing for available cargoes.^[3][4]
• The UK NBP contract rose 3.5% to 229 pence per therm on Friday, about 6.2% for the week.^[4]
• December 2022 was Europe's first winter without most Russian pipeline gas.^[2]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoEurope starts the heating season with less gas in storage than usual.
• ConfirmadoEurope's gas price is highly sensitive to news from the Persian Gulf.
• Nossa leituraIf gas stays expensive, heating and power bills and inflation in Europe may rise over time.

Ainda não se sabe

• When LNG supply from the Middle East will return to normal volumes.
• How cold the winter will be, which decides how fast storage empties.
• How and when the wholesale price will reach tariffs in each country.

Quem é afetado

European Union, United Kingdom, Worldwide. People in Europe who pay for heating and power, and anyone following energy and inflation

Fontes

1. ING THINK: The Commodities Feed: Brent builds geopolitical premium as Gulf risks rise 23 de outubro de 2026 · mídia
2. Oilprice.com: European Natural Gas Prices Surge to Highest Level Since 2022 23 de outubro de 2026 · mídia
3. Anadolu Agency: European gas prices rise 6.6% weekly as Gulf supply disruptions, winter fears mount 23 de outubro de 2026 · mídia
4. Investing.com: European gas caps strong weekly gain on Middle East supply escalation 23 de outubro de 2026 · mídia