German retail sales fall 2% in September, worse than expected

What happened. On November 2 Destatis published preliminary figures for September 2026. Adjusted for calendar and seasonal effects, retail sales fell 2.0% from August in real terms (after prices) and 1.5% in nominal terms (in plain euros). Compared with September 2025, real sales fell 2.3% while nominal sales rose 1.2%. August was revised to a 1.2% real rise from a first reading of 1.3%.

Expectations. Per Dow Jones, economists had expected a 0.3% monthly rise. The result was much worse.

Where it fell. Food: down 1.4% on the month in real terms. Non-food: down 2.4%. Online and mail order: down 2.2% on the month but up 4.4% on the year. At petrol stations real sales fell 3.4% on the month and 9.3% on the year, while nominal sales rose 16.2% on the year. So less fuel is being sold, but people pay much more for it.

Worth knowing. From September Destatis switched to a new sample of retailers and applied it back to January 2026, so the office warns that revisions may follow. Dow Jones also notes that retail data are often revised heavily.

What is not known. Destatis does not give reasons for the drop. Whether October will be better is not known yet. This is an overview, not advice.

Fatos confirmados

• German retail sales in September 2026 fell 2.0% from August in real terms and 1.5% in nominal terms (preliminary, calendar and seasonally adjusted).^[1][2]
• Compared with September 2025, real sales fell 2.3% and nominal sales rose 1.2%.^[1][2]
• August was revised to a 1.2% real rise from a preliminary 1.3%.^[1][2]
• Economists had expected a 0.3% monthly rise.^[2]
• Food sales fell 1.4% on the month in real terms, non-food 2.4% and online and mail order 2.2% (online was up 4.4% on the year).^[1]
• Real sales at petrol stations fell 3.4% on the month and 9.3% on the year, while nominal sales rose 16.2% on the year.^[1][2]
• From September 2026 Destatis uses a new sample of retail businesses, applied back to January 2026, so revisions are possible.^[1]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoIn September people in Germany bought fewer goods than in August and than a year ago.
• Nossa leituraThe gap between growth in euros and the drop in volume shows rising prices eating into purchases. This is our view.
• Nossa leituraWeak spending may add pressure on euro area growth at the end of the year. This is our view.

Ainda não se sabe

• Reasons for the drop: Destatis does not give them
• How much September will be revised
• What October sales will look like

Quem é afetado

Germany, Europe. People who follow Europe's economy, the euro, the DAX and the ECB

Fontes

1. Destatis (Statistisches Bundesamt): Einzelhandelsumsatz im September 2026 real um 2,0 % niedriger als im Vormonat 2 de novembro de 2026 · oficial
2. Dow Jones Newswires (MarketScreener): Rückschlag für deutschen Einzelhandel im September 2 de novembro de 2026 · mídia