Hryvnia exchange rate: NBU sold a record $6 billion in October

What happened. According to NBU statistics reported by Interfax-Ukraine, currency interventions in October came to $5.998 billion. The previous monthly record was set in September: $5.519 billion. In the last week of October sales rose by $625.1 million, or 52.4%, to $1.818 billion. That is the largest weekly amount. The old record, $1.626 billion, came in the last week of 2024.

How it ties to the rate. On the interbank market, where banks trade currency with each other, an intervention adds dollars when demand is higher than supply. That smooths out swings in the rate. The NBU calls its regime managed flexibility. It did not stop the fall. During the week the official rate went from 45.0510 to a record low of 45.6008 hryvnias per dollar on October 28, then recovered. For November 2 it is set at 45.3526. The record low was updated five times in October. On the cash market the dollar rose by one hryvnia in a week: buy 46.3, sell 46.57 hryvnias per dollar.

Why the pressure grew. NBU Deputy Governor Yuriy Heletiy named two reasons at a briefing on October 29. Budget spending rose, and so did demand for currency. At the same time, damage to logistics cut the supply of currency from agriculture and metallurgy. Average net demand for currency in non-cash operations was $182 million a day in October, and it rose to $230 million over the last five trading days. From January to October, client demand for currency grew by at least 25%, about $16 billion, while supply grew by only $2 billion. Export revenue for the ten months rose from $36 billion to $38 billion.

What it means for reserves. According to the interventions table on index.minfin.com.ua, the NBU sold $44.280 billion in 2026 through October 30. In all of 2025 it sold $36.103 billion. International reserves at the start of October were $47.1 billion. That is about four months of future imports and more than 100% of the IMF reserve adequacy measure. For scale, October's sales equal roughly one eighth of those reserves. That is our own calculation from two numbers. Reserves are also topped up by external financing, so our sources do not show how much they fell over the month.

Next to the interventions, the NBU raised its key rate on October 29 from 16% to 16.5%. It cited stronger price pressure and worse inflation expectations, and said the decision should support the appeal of hryvnia assets and the stability of the currency market.

Fatos confirmados

• NBU currency interventions in October 2026 were $5.998 billion (almost $6 billion), a historic monthly record.^[1][2]
• The previous monthly record was set in September 2026: $5.519 billion.^[1][2]
• In the last week of October interventions rose by $625.1 million, or 52.4%, to $1.818 billion, a weekly record.^[1][2][3]
• The previous weekly record, $1.626 billion, came in the last week of 2024.^[1]
• The NBU official rate fell from 45.0510 to a record low of 45.6008 hryvnias per dollar on October 28; for November 2 it is set at 45.3526.^[1]
• The official hryvnia rate against the dollar hit a record low five times in October.^[1]
• On the cash market the dollar rose by one hryvnia in a week: buy 46.3, sell 46.57 hryvnias per dollar.^[1]
• Yuriy Heletiy explained the pressure by higher budget spending and a smaller supply of currency from agriculture and metallurgy because of damaged logistics.^[1][2]
• Average net demand for currency in non-cash operations was $182 million a day in October, $230 million over the last five trading days.^[1]
• In January-October 2026 client demand for currency grew by at least 25%, about $16 billion, while supply grew by $2 billion.^[1]
• Export revenue for the ten months rose from about $36 billion to $38 billion.^[1]
• Ukraine's international reserves at the start of October were $47.1 billion, about four months of future imports and more than 100% of the IMF adequacy measure.^[1]
• In 2026 through October 30 the NBU sold $44.280 billion; in all of 2025 it sold $36.103 billion.^[3]
• On October 29 the NBU raised its key rate from 16% to 16.5%.^[2]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoDemand for currency clearly exceeded supply in October, and the NBU covered the gap from its stock.
• ConfirmadoInterventions smoothed the hryvnia's fall but did not stop it: the rate hit a record low five times.
• Nossa leituraOctober's sales equal roughly one eighth of reserves at the start of the month. This is our calculation, and the monthly net change in reserves also depends on inflows.

Ainda não se sabe

• How much is left in reserves at the end of October after sales and external inflows
• How long demand for currency will stay above supply
• How the higher key rate will affect the currency market

Quem é afetado

Ukraine, Europe, World. Anyone following the hryvnia and the central bank's reserves, and anyone curious how central banks manage a currency

Fontes

1. Interfax-Ukraine: Валютні інтервенції НБУ цього тижня та місяця досягли історичних максимумів $1,8 млрд та $6 млрд 31 de outubro de 2026 · mídia
2. Economic Pravda: НБУ побил два рекорда, сдерживая падение гривны 31 de outubro de 2026 · mídia
3. Minfin (index.minfin.com.ua): Результаты валютных интервенций НБУ (2018-2026) 30 de outubro de 2026 · mídia