Naira appreciation against the US dollar: 6.3% in a year, not a week

What the 6.3% covers. Punch compares two dates: ₦1,346.79 per dollar on November 6, 2026 and ₦1,436.74 on the same date in 2025. That is a move of ₦89.95, or 6.26%. The CBN's own table shows ₦1,346.7945 for November 6. Our check: ₦89.95 divided by ₦1,436.74 gives about 6.26%. It is not a one-week or one-month gain.

What happened lately. BusinessDay columnist Emmanuel Macaulay writes that the naira lost 1.2% in October, going from ₦1,330.09 at the start of the month to ₦1,346.26 on October 30. So the year-on-year gain sits next to a small recent slide.

What drives the rate. Reserves are one piece. BusinessDay puts them at about $55.24bn at the end of October, up from about $43.15bn a year earlier. Punch gives $55.133bn on November 5. Macaulay also points to net FX inflows of $22.5bn in the second quarter of 2026, the highest since late 2019. He says this came mostly from smaller outflows, which fell from $11.05bn to $8.93bn, while total inflows slipped from $32.39bn to $31.43bn.

What the central bank says. In July 2026 CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso said the naira must stay market-driven and not be propped up artificially. He described a market where daily turnover is sometimes above $1bn and said the naira's value should follow fundamentals such as oil and non-oil exports, foreign direct investment and productivity.

The caution. Macaulay argues that holding more dollars is not the same as earning more. Portfolio investment rose 45% to $6.51bn in the second quarter, while he calls foreign direct investment weak. Portfolio money can leave when interest rate expectations change. That is an opinion piece, so treat it as one view.

Fatos confirmados

• Punch reported that the naira strengthened 6.26% against the US dollar over a year: ₦1,346.79 per dollar on November 6, 2026 versus ₦1,436.74 on the same date in 2025, a gain of ₦89.95.^[2]
• The CBN table lists the US dollar at ₦1,346.7945 (selling rate) for November 6, 2026.^[1]
• BusinessDay's columnist says the naira depreciated 1.2% in October, from ₦1,330.09 at the start of the month to ₦1,346.26 on October 30.^[3]
• Nigeria's external reserves were $55.133bn on November 5, 2026, according to Punch.^[2]
• BusinessDay's columnist puts reserves at about $55.24bn at the end of October, up from about $43.15bn a year earlier.^[3]
• Net FX inflows were $22.5bn in the second quarter of 2026, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2019; outflows fell from $11.05bn to $8.93bn and total inflows from $32.39bn to $31.43bn.^[3]
• Portfolio investment rose 45% to $6.51bn in the second quarter of 2026, while the columnist says concerns remain about weak foreign direct investment.^[3]
• CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso said in July 2026 that the naira must remain market-driven and competitive, and that daily FX turnover is sometimes above $1bn.^[2]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoThe 6.3% figure is a 12-month change and sits beside a 1.2% fall in October.
• ConfirmadoA stronger naira than a year ago may ease the cost of imported inputs, but Punch says it depends on whether importers cut prices and whether the gain holds.
• Nossa leituraIf more of the inflows are short-term portfolio money, the rate could be more sensitive to changes in global returns. This is the columnist's view and our reading.

Ainda não se sabe

• Whether the naira holds its level in the coming weeks
• How much of the inflows is short-term portfolio money and how much is long-term investment
• How much the CBN is buying or selling in the market

Quem é afetado

Nigeria. People who send money to Nigeria, import goods priced in dollars, or follow African currencies and emerging markets

Fontes

1. Central Bank of Nigeria: Exchange Rates 6 de novembro de 2026 · oficial
2. Punch: Naira gains 6.3% against dollar as reserves remain above $55bn 9 de novembro de 2026 · mídia
3. BusinessDay: The Naira's recovery has a missing foundation 6 de novembro de 2026 · mídia