Americans fear higher unemployment the most since 2020

What happened. The New York Fed's Center for Microeconomic Data published its Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) for October. It ran from October 1 to 31. It is a monthly survey of about 1,300 household heads, with the same people answering for up to 12 months.

Inflation. Median expectations did not change: 3.9% one year ahead, 3.3% at three years, 3.0% at five years. Expected gas price growth fell 0.6 points to 4.2%, food held at 5.5%. Expected rent growth rose 0.9 points to 7.7%, medical care to 9.3%, college to 7.6%.

Jobs. The chance that unemployment will be higher in a year rose to 45.3%, the highest since April 2020. The rise came from people without a college degree. The chance of losing one's job in a year rose to 13.9%, still below its 12-month average of 14.3%. The chance of finding a job after a loss rose to 46.5%, the highest since November 2025. Reuters notes that Friday's jobs data was strong: 165,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.1%.

Household money. The chance of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months rose 1.6 points to 13.8%, the highest since December 2025. Expected income growth is 3.0%, spending growth 5.3%. The chance that savings account rates will be higher in a year rose to 31.6%, the highest since April 2023.

Fatos confirmados

• Median inflation expectations were unchanged in October: 3.9% at one year, 3.3% at three years, 3.0% at five years.^[1][2][4]
• The mean chance of higher unemployment in a year rose 1.4 points to 45.3%, the highest since April 2020; the rise came from people without a college degree.^[1][2][3]
• The chance of losing one's job in the next 12 months rose 0.4 points to 13.9%, below its 12-month average of 14.3%.^[1]
• The chance of finding a job after a job loss rose to 46.5%, the highest since November 2025.^[1]
• The chance of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months rose 1.6 points to 13.8%.^[1]
• Expected rent growth rose 0.9 points to 7.7%; expected gas price growth fell 0.6 points to 4.2%.^[1]
• The survey ran from October 1 to 31, 2026, among about 1,300 household heads.^[1]
• On Friday the US reported 165,000 jobs added in October and unemployment at 4.1%.^[3]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoAmericans' inflation expectations did not rise over the month.
• Nossa leituraFor the Fed, steady expectations ease pressure, but they are still above the 2% target. This is our inference.
• Nossa leituraRising job fears and expected missed payments could make households more careful with holiday spending. This is our inference.

Ainda não se sabe

• Whether actual October inflation on November 10 will match what people expect
• Why job fears are rising while jobs data is strong
• How the Fed will weigh this survey at its December meeting

Quem é afetado

United States. People who follow the Fed rate, the dollar, US stocks and crypto ahead of inflation data

Fontes

1. Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Inflation Expectations Stable; Labor Market Expectations Mixed 9 de novembro de 2026 · oficial
2. Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Survey of Consumer Expectations 9 de novembro de 2026 · oficial
3. Reuters: NY Fed survey finds Americans more worried over future jobless levels 9 de novembro de 2026 · mídia
4. Bloomberg: Steady Inflation Outlook, Mixed Views for Jobs in NY Fed Survey 9 de novembro de 2026 · mídia