OPEC+ keeps December oil output unchanged, next meeting November 29

What they decided. According to OPEC, the seven countries that announced extra voluntary cuts in April and November 2023 met online on November 1, 2026. They agreed to keep December's required production at the September level. They also repeated their commitment to full compliance with the wider OPEC+ deal and said they will keep meeting every month.

Why the pause. Reuters reports that the group raised output targets for much of 2026 and in September finished the phased return of 1.65 million barrels a day that it had cut in 2023. Targets for October and November were left unchanged. In July Reuters reported that no changes were likely for the rest of the year.

Quotas versus reality. Reuters notes that Gulf members have been lifting exports after months of disruption, but most are still pumping well below their targets. So right now supply is limited less by OPEC+ decisions and more by problems getting oil out.

What comes next. The group still has one more layer of cuts, about 2 million barrels a day, covering most members until the end of 2026. Before the quarter ends OPEC+ needs to review each member's real capacity and use it to set the baselines for 2027 quotas. That is the big question for the next meetings.

Who it touches. Anyone trading oil or energy stocks, or watching petrol prices and inflation. Cheap or expensive oil shapes decisions at the Fed and other central banks, and through them every risk asset.

Fatos confirmados

• On November 1, 2026 Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman held an online meeting.^[1]
• The seven countries decided to keep December 2026 required production at the September 2026 level.^[1]
• The seven countries' next meeting is set for November 29, 2026.^[1]
• In September the group completed the phased rollback of a 1.65 million barrel a day cut agreed in 2023. October and November targets were left unchanged.^[3]
• OPEC+ still has a layer of cuts of about 2 million barrels a day running to the end of 2026.^[2][3]
• The group needs to review members' capacity in the fourth quarter before setting the 2027 quota baselines.^[2][3]
• Most Gulf members are still pumping below their targets because of export disruptions.^[3]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoOPEC+ supply will not rise in December by the group's own decision.
• Nossa leituraIn the coming weeks oil prices are likely to move more on Gulf export news than on OPEC+ decisions. This is our reading.
• Nossa leituraThe fight over 2027 quotas could become the main oil risk early next year. This is our reading.

Ainda não se sabe

• What quotas each country will get for 2027
• When Gulf producers will return to full output
• How oil prices react when markets open on Monday

Quem é afetado

World, Gulf, Russia. People watching oil, inflation, energy stocks and the currencies of oil producers

Fontes

1. OPEC: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman reaffirm commitment to market stability 1 de novembro de 2026 · oficial
2. Investing.com: OPEC+ set to hold December oil output steady 31 de outubro de 2026 · mídia
3. Reuters (via KFGO): OPEC+ set to keep oil output targets steady, sources say 1 de novembro de 2026 · mídia