Rupiah to dollar rate near record low as Fed hike bets grow

What happened. On Wednesday, November 11, the rupiah lost ground against the US dollar. According to Refinitiv data cited by CNBC Indonesia, it opened at Rp18,095 per dollar, 0.28% weaker, after two straight days of gains. On Tuesday it closed at Rp18,045, up 0.14% from Rp18,070. Bank Indonesia's JISDOR reference rate was Rp18,154 for November 11 and Rp18,059 for November 10. Stockbit says the rupiah closed at 18,145, down 0.5%. The figures differ a little because they come from different sources and times.

Why it is happening. The push came from the US. The consumer price index rose 0.4% month on month in October, against a 0.3% forecast. Core inflation was 0.3% against 0.2% expected, Stockbit adds. Before the data came out, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed needs to raise rates in December. Stockbit says he also allowed for a 0.5 percentage point hike if core inflation stays at 0.3%.

What markets show. According to CNBC Indonesia, the odds of a December hike on CME FedWatch are near 91%. Stockbit gives 85% at Tuesday's close, up from 76% on November 6. The two-year US Treasury yield, which reacts fast to rate expectations, jumped about 18.44 basis points to 4.731%. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. The US dollar index (DXY), which compares the dollar with six major currencies, stood at 102.294 at 9 a.m. Jakarta time, after a 0.57% rise a day earlier.

What it means for the rupiah. A weaker rupiah means each dollar costs more rupiah. CNBC Indonesia says higher US yields make dollar assets more attractive and can limit flows into emerging economies, which adds pressure on the rupiah. Stockbit says a more hawkish Fed may call for a stronger response from Bank Indonesia. The Bloomberg consensus for now is that the central bank raises its rate by 0.25 percentage points to 6% by March 2027.

What we do not know. Stockbit calls 18,189 the record low of the rupiah but gives no date. The pages we opened do not give one either, and we did not check that level against another source. We also do not know what the Fed will decide in December.

Fatos confirmados

• Bank Indonesia's JISDOR reference rate was Rp18,154 per US dollar on November 11, 2026, and Rp18,059 on November 10.^[1]
• According to Refinitiv, the rupiah opened on November 11 at Rp18,095 per dollar, 0.28% weaker, after two days of gains.^[2]
• According to Stockbit, the rupiah closed on November 11 at 18,145, down 0.5%, near the record low of 18,189. No date is given for the low.^[3]
• The US consumer price index rose 0.4% month on month in October, against a 0.3% forecast.^[2][3]
• US core inflation in October was 0.3% month on month, against a 0.2% forecast.^[3]
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed needs to raise rates in December.^[2][3]
• The odds of a December Fed hike on CME FedWatch: near 91% per CNBC Indonesia; 85% at Tuesday's close, up from 76% on November 6, per Stockbit.^[2][3]
• The two-year US Treasury yield rose about 18.44 basis points to 4.731%.^[2]
• The US dollar index (DXY) was 102.294 at 9 a.m. Jakarta time, after a 0.57% rise a day earlier.^[2]
• The Bloomberg consensus has Bank Indonesia raising its rate by 0.25 percentage points to 6% by March 2027.^[3]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoOn November 11 the rupiah was weaker against the dollar than a day earlier: the JISDOR rate rose from 18,059 to 18,154.
• ConfirmadoMarkets see a December Fed hike as likely: 85% and near 91% in two sources.
• Nossa leituraA weak rupiah costs more for people in Indonesia who pay in dollars, such as importers and borrowers in foreign currency. It helps visitors who bring dollars. This is our reading.
• Nossa leituraThe rupiah now depends heavily on US data and Fed comments, not only on news from Indonesia. This is our reading.

Ainda não se sabe

• The date of the 18,189 record low of the rupiah, which Stockbit does not give
• What the Fed will decide in December
• How Bank Indonesia will respond: with its rate or other tools

Quem é afetado

Indonesia, US, Global. Anyone who pays or earns in rupiah and dollars, and anyone following the Fed's rate path

Fontes

1. Bank Indonesia: JISDOR 11 de novembro de 2026 · oficial
2. CNBC Indonesia: Rupiah Dibuka ke Rp18.095 per Dolar AS Pagi Ini 11 de novembro de 2026 · mídia
3. Stockbit Snips: Narasi Hawkish The Fed Menguat, Rupiah Kembali Dekati All-Time Low 11 de novembro de 2026 · mídia