UK house prices: annual growth slows to 0.5%, weakest since January 2024

What happened. On 30 October Nationwide published its house price index for October 2026. After seasonal adjustment, prices were flat on the month (minus 0.0%), after a 0.3% fall in September. On the year prices rose 0.5%, after 0.8% in September. That is the weakest growth since January 2024. The average price, not seasonally adjusted, was £273,566, down from £274,251 in September.

Why. Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist, says market activity and price growth have slowed in recent months, partly because of the uncertain economic backdrop. The conflict in the Middle East is pushing up energy prices and fanning inflation concerns. As a result, financial markets increasingly expect Bank Rate increases, which keeps the market rates behind mortgage pricing high.

What next. Gardner says forward-looking indicators point to further softness in the near term. Surveyors report weak new buyer enquiries, and consumer sentiment dipped noticeably in October. He still sees reasons for the market to regain momentum once the energy shock fades: employment is holding up, so are real incomes, and household debt relative to income is close to 20-year lows.

Why it matters to you. If you live in the UK or are thinking about a mortgage there, the Bank of England rate matters more than any single monthly index. Slow price growth with high rates means buyers face less pressure to rush, and sellers find it harder to push prices up. That is our reading, not a forecast.

What we don't know. Whether and when the Bank of England raises rates. How long the energy price rise lasts. Whether other house price indices show the same picture.

Fatos confirmados

• Per Nationwide, UK house prices were unchanged month on month in October 2026 after seasonal adjustment (minus 0.0%), after a 0.3% fall in September.^[1][2]
• Annual house price growth slowed to 0.5% from 0.8% in September, the weakest pace since January 2024.^[1][2]
• The average price, not seasonally adjusted, was £273,566 in October versus £274,251 in September.^[1]
• Nationwide chief economist Robert Gardner links the slowdown to the uncertain economic backdrop and to energy prices pushed up by the conflict in the Middle East, which fans inflation concerns.^[1]
• Gardner says markets increasingly expect Bank Rate increases, keeping upward pressure on the market rates that underpin mortgage pricing.^[1][2]
• Gardner says surveyors report weak new buyer enquiries and consumer sentiment dipped noticeably in October.^[1]
• He says employment and real incomes are holding up and household debt relative to disposable income is close to 20-year lows.^[1]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoUK house prices have almost stopped rising: 0.5% on the year.
• ConfirmadoNationwide itself expects softness in the coming months.
• Nossa leituraIf the Bank of England raises rates, mortgages could get dearer and slow the market further.

Ainda não se sabe

• Whether and when the Bank of England raises rates.
• How long the energy price rise lasts.
• Whether other house price indices show the same picture.

Quem é afetado

United Kingdom, World. People who live in the UK, are thinking about a mortgage, or follow the pound and the Bank of England

Fontes

1. Nationwide Building Society: Annual house price growth slows again in October 30 de outubro de 2026 · oficial
2. Investing.com (Reuters): UK house prices flat in October as rate rise bets weigh, Nationwide says 30 de outubro de 2026 · mídia