UK factories grow fastest in two years, but so do their costs

What happened. On November 2 S&P Global published the final UK manufacturing PMI for October: 52.8, up from 51.9 in September. It is a five-month high and the same as the flash estimate. The PMI is a survey of about 650 factory purchasing managers: above 50 means conditions improved from the month before.

What is growing. Output rose for a seventh month in a row and at the fastest pace in 25 months. Per Reuters, the output index rose to 53.6 from 51.5, its highest since September 2024. New orders grew at the fastest pace since July and export orders rose for a tenth month. Business confidence for the year ahead hit an eight-month high.

What is worrying. Input costs rose for the 34th month running, at one of the fastest rates in four years, beaten only by March to June this year. Energy, fuel, transport, electronics, chemicals and metals all cost more. Delivery times stretched by one of the most in four years because of re-routed shipping, port congestion and shortages. Factories raised their own prices at the fastest pace in three months. Hiring stalled after six months of growth.

Why this matters for rates. Rob Dobson of S&P Global said fast-rising costs together with resilient factories "will further shorten the odds of interest rate hikes" from the Bank of England. Reuters says the bank looks set to raise rates this week. Per Reuters, the October 28 budget largely spared businesses from tax rises but lifted the minimum wage by 3.9% for next year.

What is not known. How the budget affected firms, since the survey ran October 12 to 27, before it. Whether and by how much the Bank of England raises rates. This is an overview, not advice.

Fatos confirmados

• The S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8 in October 2026 from 51.9 in September, a five-month high and unchanged from the flash estimate.^[1][2]
• Output rose for a seventh straight month, at the fastest pace in 25 months.^[1]
• The output index rose to 53.6 from 51.5, its highest since September 2024.^[2]
• New orders grew at the fastest pace since July, and new export orders rose for a tenth month.^[1]
• Staffing levels were unchanged after six months of job growth.^[1][2]
• Input costs rose for a 34th month, at one of the fastest rates in four years, beaten only by March to June 2026.^[1]
• Factory selling prices rose at the fastest pace in three months; optimism hit an eight-month high.^[1]
• The survey ran from October 12 to 27, before the October 28 budget.^[1][2]
• Reuters says the Bank of England looks set to raise rates this week; the budget raised the minimum wage by 3.9% for next year.^[2]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoUK manufacturing grew in October while its costs sped up.
• Nossa leituraFast-rising costs may pass through to consumer prices and keep inflation up. This is our view.
• Nossa leituraThe data add to the case for a Bank of England hike, which could support the pound and make loans dearer. This is our view.

Ainda não se sabe

• How the October 28 budget affects factories, since the survey ran before it
• Whether the Bank of England raises rates this week, and by how much
• Whether order growth holds up in November

Quem é afetado

United Kingdom, Europe. People who follow the pound, UK stocks and the Bank of England

Fontes

1. S&P Global: S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI: UK manufacturing production rises at faster pace, helped by stronger gains in new orders 2 de novembro de 2026 · oficial
2. Reuters: UK October manufacturing PMI shows fastest output growth in two years 2 de novembro de 2026 · mídia