US October inflation report will have no annual rate
US consumer prices for October come out on November 10, but without the usual annual inflation rate: the October 2025 data simply does not exist.
Evento: 10 de novembro de 2026
Fonte primária: 9 de novembro de 2026
Publicado aqui: 9 de novembro de 2026 às 20:58 UTC
Ler: 2 min
O que aconteceu
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not publish 12-month changes in the consumer price index (CPI) for October 2026, for headline or core. The reason: during the 2025 government shutdown it collected almost no October 2025 prices, so there is nothing to compare with. Monthly figures will still be there.
Por que importa para você
The annual rate is the number markets and the Fed use to judge prices. It was 3.7% in September. Tomorrow that anchor will be missing, so markets will trade on the monthly change. Moves in the dollar, stocks and crypto could be sharper than usual.
O que conferir e observar
The report is out on November 10 at 8:30 a.m. New York time (13:30 UTC). Forecast, per Investing.com: up 0.3% on the month, core up 0.2%. It is the last inflation report before the Fed's December meeting. This is an overview, not advice.
Onde está acontecendo
LIVEArraste para girar. Pontos verdes: a bolsa está negociando agora (horário normal, sem contar feriados). Sombra: onde agora é noite. Fronteiras: Natural Earth, terremotos: USGS. Ideia das camadas: God’s Eye View (MIT).
What happened. The US federal government was shut down from October 1 to November 12, 2025. BLS could not collect most October 2025 prices and issued no report for that month. It carried September prices forward to October 2025, but did not publish the October index for most series.
What it means now. Annual inflation is the change in the index from the same month a year earlier. With no October 2025 index, there is no annual figure for October 2026. BLS flagged this in advance in its FAQ, and on November 9 a BLS spokesperson confirmed it to Investing.com. For the same reason, annual real earnings growth will also be missing.
What remains. BLS will publish the seasonally adjusted monthly change as usual. In September prices rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, and core inflation, without food and energy, was 2.6% on the year. Gasoline was up 34.2% from a year earlier.
How to read the report. Watch the monthly numbers: headline and core. To compare with last year, analysts will build their own estimates, for example using November or September 2025. Those estimates will differ. There will be no official annual figure for October.
Fatos confirmados
- BLS will not publish 12-month CPI changes for October 2026 for indexes where October 2025 data are not available.[1][3]
- The US federal government was shut down or short-staffed from October 1 to November 12, 2025; BLS could not collect October 2025 survey data and issued no October 2025 CPI release.[1]
- Without October 2025 data, the 12-month change cannot be calculated for headline or core CPI; annual real earnings growth will also be unavailable.[3]
- Monthly changes will still be published; per Investing.com, economists expect CPI up 0.3% on the month and core up 0.2%.[3]
- The October 2026 CPI report is scheduled for November 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.[2]
- In September 2026 CPI rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year; core CPI rose 2.6% on the year.[2]
Implicações
- ConfirmadoThere will be no official annual inflation rate for October on November 10.
- Nossa leituraMarkets may react more strongly than usual to the monthly figures, and media will quote different homemade annual estimates. This is our inference.
- Nossa leituraThe Fed will make its December rate decision with a less familiar inflation picture. This is our inference.
Ainda não se sabe
- What the monthly inflation rate for October will be
- How the Fed and markets will judge the annual trend without an official figure
- Whether the annual figure returns with the November report
Quem é afetado
United States. People who trade or hold the dollar, US stocks, gold and crypto on inflation day
Fontes
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: 2025 federal government shutdown impact on the Consumer Price Index 16 de setembro de 2026 · oficial
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: CPI Home: September 2026 data and next release date 14 de outubro de 2026 · oficial
- Investing.com: BLS will omit 12-month CPI, Core CPI figures from October report 9 de novembro de 2026 · mídia
Capa: Gráfico de Freekonomist, uma imagem simbólica, não uma foto do evento. Este é um explicador de notícia, não recomendação financeira.
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