Japan's trend inflation hits 3.2%, a 3-year high, BOJ data show

What happened. The Bank of Japan calculates its own core price indexes. They remove one-off government steps from official data: consumption tax changes, free education (including free school lunches from April 2026), the 2021 cut in mobile phone charges, travel subsidies and energy subsidies for gasoline, electricity and gas.

The numbers. Per the BOJ table, in September prices excluding fresh food and institutional factors rose 3.2% year on year (2.6% in August). Excluding fresh food, energy and institutional factors they rose 2.7% (2.2% in August). Excluding all food, energy and institutional factors they rose 2.4% (1.8% in August).

Why it matters. Reuters says the index helps gauge price moves driven by domestic demand. The BOJ has said it focuses on underlying inflation when deciding the pace and timing of rate hikes.

Services too. Per Reuters, the BOJ said the same day that the services producer price index, which tracks what companies charge each other, rose 3.7% in September. Key drivers included a 97.7% jump in ocean freight costs, as the weak yen and the Middle East conflict made fuel imports more expensive.

What is next. The BOJ meeting ends on Friday. Reuters expects the bank to keep rates at 1.25% but signal readiness to keep raising them.

Keep in mind. This is not advice to buy or sell anything.

已确认的事实

• In September 2026 the BOJ index excluding fresh food and institutional factors rose 3.2% year on year, up from 2.6% in August.^[1][2]
• Excluding fresh food, energy and institutional factors it rose 2.7% (2.2% in August); excluding food and energy, 2.4% (1.8% in August).^[1]
• Institutional factors include consumption tax changes, free education, the 2021 mobile fee cut, travel subsidies and energy subsidies.^[1]
• Per Reuters, this is the index's fastest rise since October 2023.^[2]
• The services producer price index rose 3.7% in September, with ocean freight costs up 97.7%.^[2]
• The BOJ meeting ends on Friday; Reuters expects rates on hold at 1.25%.^[2]

影响

• 已确认Japanese inflation sped up even after removing subsidies and one-off steps.
• 我们的解读A BOJ rate hike in the coming months has become more likely.
• 我们的解读Higher Japanese rates could support the yen and make yen-funded carry trades more expensive.

仍未知

• What signal the BOJ will give on 30 October.
• Whether the speed-up holds if fuel and freight costs ease.

影响到谁

Japan, Worldwide. Anyone following the yen, central bank rates and global markets

来源

1. Bank of Japan: Indicators for Core CPI 2026年10月27日 · 官方
2. Reuters (Investing.com): Japan's trend inflation index hits 3-year high, cements case for BOJ rate hike 2026年10月27日 · 媒体