US budget deficit hits an October record of $404 billion

The numbers. In October 2026, the first month of fiscal 2027, federal receipts were $368.9 billion, outlays $773.0 billion and the deficit $404.1 billion. In October 2025 receipts were $404.4 billion, outlays $688.7 billion and the deficit $284.3 billion. Reuters reports this is a record deficit for October.

Why receipts fell. Receipts dropped $35 billion, or 9%. Reuters says this was partly due to lower net customs duties. Another reason: individual non-withheld taxes fell $29 billion, or 36%. A year ago they were swelled by delayed filing deadlines for Californians hit by the 2025 wildfires.

Why spending rose. Outlays of $773 billion were a record for October, up $84 billion or 12%. Agriculture Department spending rose $14 billion, or 80%, on farm relief payments. Military spending rose $28 billion, or 30%. Part of that was a payment to military trust funds delayed by last year's government shutdown.

Calendar adjustment. November benefit payments were shifted into October in both years. Without that, the deficit would have been $285 billion, up $94 billion or 49% from a year earlier. Even adjusted, the increase is large.

Interest. Gross interest on the federal debt rose $11 billion, or 11%, to $115 billion for the month.

已确认的事实

• In October 2026 US receipts were $368.9 billion, outlays $773.0 billion and the deficit $404.1 billion.^[1][2]
• In October 2025 the deficit was $284.3 billion, with receipts of $404.4 billion and outlays of $688.7 billion.^[1]
• The deficit was a record for October, up $120 billion or 42%.^[2]
• Adjusted for shifted November benefit payments, the deficit would have been $285 billion, up $94 billion or 49%.^[2]
• Individual non-withheld taxes fell $29 billion, or 36%; a year earlier they were swelled by wildfire-related deadline delays in California.^[2]
• Agriculture Department spending rose $14 billion (80%) on farm relief, and military spending rose $28 billion (30%).^[2]
• Gross interest on the debt rose 11% to $115 billion.^[2]

影响

• 已确认The October deficit grew both with and without the calendar adjustment.
• 我们的解读A bigger deficit means more bond issuance, which can weigh on bond prices and keep yields high. This is our inference.
• 我们的解读One month does not set the trend for the year: some of the spending is one-off. This is our inference.

仍未知

• What the deficit will be for all of fiscal 2027.
• Whether customs receipts keep falling.
• Whether the Treasury will change how much debt it issues.

影响到谁

United States, Global. Anyone holding US bonds or stocks, borrowing in dollars or following US government debt

来源

1. U.S. Department of the Treasury (Fiscal Data): Monthly Treasury Statement: Summary of Receipts and Outlays, October 2026 2026年11月12日 · 官方
2. Reuters via Investing.com: US starts 2027 fiscal year with record October budget deficit of $404 billion 2026年11月12日 · 媒体