Australian home values fall for a seventh month, down 1.2% in October

What happened. Cotality, which tracks Australian home values, said on November 2 that its national index fell 1.2% in October. September's drop was revised to 1.3%, Reuters reports. Values are 6.7% below the March peak and 2.8% lower than a year ago.

Why it is a record. The capital city index has lost 8.1% in seven months. Over the same seven months of the 2022-23 downturn, it fell 7.0%. Cotality calls the current pace the fastest in 40 years.

Where it falls most. Brisbane fell 2.0% in the month, Perth 1.7% and Sydney 1.6%. Brisbane and Perth had years of very strong growth before the downturn, so many owners still have a buffer. Melbourne values are 7.3% lower than five years ago, Sydney 1.5% lower.

Few buyers. Cotality estimates sales over the past three months were 23% lower than a year ago and 18% below the five-year average. Sydney is down 30%, Brisbane 29%. Auction clearance rates in the capitals are below 50%. The median time on market is 39 days, the longest since August 2020. Vendor discounting is 4.7%, the largest since May 2019. Capital city listings are the highest for this time of year since 2019.

What comes next. Cotality research director Tim Lawless says four rate hikes, low confidence and cost-of-living pressure are weighing on demand. According to Reuters, the RBA may raise rates a fifth time on Tuesday, November 3, to 4.85%, an 18-year high. Markets price that at nearly 90%. The RBA itself says most borrowers would stay in positive equity even if prices fell 20%.

حقائق مؤكدة

• Cotality's national Home Value Index fell 1.2% in October 2026, the seventh monthly fall in a row.^[1][2]
• Values are 6.7% below the March peak, about A$63,400 off the median dwelling.^[1]
• Values are down 2.8% from a year ago, and September's drop was revised to 1.3%.^[2]
• The capital city index fell 8.1% in seven months, versus 7.0% over the same span of the 2022-23 downturn.^[1][2]
• In October, Brisbane fell 2.0%, Perth 1.7% and Sydney 1.6%.^[1][2]
• Sales over three months were 23% lower than a year ago and 18% below the five-year average. Sydney is down 30%, Brisbane 29%.^[1]
• Median time on market is 39 days, the highest since August 2020. Vendor discounting is 4.7%, the largest since May 2019.^[1]
• Markets expect the RBA to raise rates a fifth time to 4.85%, with a probability of nearly 90%.^[2]
• The RBA says most mortgage holders would still have positive equity if prices fell 20%.^[2]

التبعات

• مؤكدBuyers have more choice and more leverage, but many stay out because mortgages are expensive.
• قراءتناAnother rate hike could extend the downturn. This is our reading.

لا يزال مجهولًا

• Whether the RBA raises rates on November 3
• How long the price fall will last
• How the downturn will hit banks and building

من يتأثر

Australia, World. People buying, selling or owning a home in Australia, and anyone watching the Australian dollar and the RBA

المصادر

1. Cotality: Housing downturn broadens as Brisbane and Perth lead the decline 2 نوفمبر 2026 · رسمي
2. Reuters via Investing.com: Australian home prices fall for seventh month, looming rate hike adds to pain 1 نوفمبر 2026 · إعلام