US 10-year Treasury yield falls from 5.29% to 4.94% in October

What happened. The US Treasury publishes the yields on its bonds every day. On 30 October the 10-year yield was 4.94%; on 30 September it was 5.29%. That is 0.35 percentage point lower in a month. Other maturities moved the same way: the 2-year from 4.88% to 4.56%, the 30-year from 5.64% to 5.31%.

Why. Per Reuters, on 30 October a sharp tech selloff pushed investors into US bonds as a safe asset. Intel fell 28.6% and the Nasdaq 2.86%. Investors worry that huge AI spending will not deliver enough return. Reuters wrote that the 10-year was heading for its biggest monthly drop in yield in nearly three years.

What is odd. Bonds rallied even though markets expect a Fed rate hike and oil is getting pricier: US crude settled at $104.12 a barrel and Brent at $117.63. Normally that hurts bonds. In October, fear about stocks won.

Why it matters to you. Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions: if you hold a US bond fund, it most likely gained in October. The 10-year rate affects mortgages and loans. Still, 4.94% is high by the standards of recent years.

What we don't know. Whether the bond rally holds if the Fed hikes in December. How markets react to the US midterm elections. Whether the tech selloff stops.

Hechos confirmados

• Per US Treasury data, the 10-year yield was 4.94% on 30 October 2026 and 5.29% on 30 September.^[1]
• In October the 2-year yield fell from 4.88% to 4.56% and the 30-year from 5.64% to 5.31%.^[1]
• Reuters wrote that the 10-year was heading for its biggest monthly drop in yield in nearly three years.^[2]
• On 30 October the 10-year yield fell 5.8 basis points to 4.931% in market trading, per Reuters.^[2]
• A tech selloff driven by AI spending fears pushed investors into US bonds; Intel fell 28.6% and the Nasdaq 2.86%.^[2]
• US crude settled at $104.12 a barrel on 30 October and Brent at $117.63.^[2]

Implicaciones

• ConfirmadoUS bond prices rose in October because their yields fell.
• Nuestra lecturaIf the drop holds, US mortgage rates could ease a little.
• Nuestra lecturaA Fed rate hike in December could reverse the move.

Todavía no se sabe

• Whether the Fed hikes in December
• How markets react to the US midterm elections
• Whether the tech stock selloff continues

A quién afecta

United States, Global. People who hold bonds or bond funds, take mortgages or follow interest rates

Fuentes

1. U.S. Department of the Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, October 2026 30 de octubre de 2026 · oficial
2. Reuters: Stocks fall on AI cash burn worries while bonds rally with oil 30 de octubre de 2026 · medios