US 10-year Treasury yield falls from 5.29% to 4.94% in October

Per the US Treasury, the 10-year yield fell 0.35 percentage point in October as money moved out of tech stocks and into safe bonds.

Event: October 30, 2026
Primary source: October 30, 2026
Published here: October 31, 2026 at 12:57 AM UTC
Read: 2 min

What happened

Per US Treasury data, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.94% on 30 October, down from 5.29% on 30 September. That is 0.35 percentage point lower in a month. The 2-year fell from 4.88% to 4.56%, the 30-year from 5.64% to 5.31%. Reuters says the 10-year was heading for its biggest monthly drop in nearly three years.

Why it matters to you

When yields fall, bond prices rise. The 10-year rate feeds into US mortgages and loans, and into borrowing costs worldwide. Money went into bonds while tech stocks fell on fears that AI spending will not pay off.

What to check and watch

Watch US jobs data, the midterm elections next week and the Fed's December decision: markets expect a rate hike. This is an overview, not money advice.

Open the US Treasury yield table

What happened. The US Treasury publishes the yields on its bonds every day. On 30 October the 10-year yield was 4.94%; on 30 September it was 5.29%. That is 0.35 percentage point lower in a month. Other maturities moved the same way: the 2-year from 4.88% to 4.56%, the 30-year from 5.64% to 5.31%.

Why. Per Reuters, on 30 October a sharp tech selloff pushed investors into US bonds as a safe asset. Intel fell 28.6% and the Nasdaq 2.86%. Investors worry that huge AI spending will not deliver enough return. Reuters wrote that the 10-year was heading for its biggest monthly drop in yield in nearly three years.

What is odd. Bonds rallied even though markets expect a Fed rate hike and oil is getting pricier: US crude settled at $104.12 a barrel and Brent at $117.63. Normally that hurts bonds. In October, fear about stocks won.

Why it matters to you. Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions: if you hold a US bond fund, it most likely gained in October. The 10-year rate affects mortgages and loans. Still, 4.94% is high by the standards of recent years.

What we don't know. Whether the bond rally holds if the Fed hikes in December. How markets react to the US midterm elections. Whether the tech selloff stops.

Confirmed facts

Per US Treasury data, the 10-year yield was 4.94% on 30 October 2026 and 5.29% on 30 September.^[1]
In October the 2-year yield fell from 4.88% to 4.56% and the 30-year from 5.64% to 5.31%.^[1]
Reuters wrote that the 10-year was heading for its biggest monthly drop in yield in nearly three years.^[2]
On 30 October the 10-year yield fell 5.8 basis points to 4.931% in market trading, per Reuters.^[2]
A tech selloff driven by AI spending fears pushed investors into US bonds; Intel fell 28.6% and the Nasdaq 2.86%.^[2]
US crude settled at $104.12 a barrel on 30 October and Brent at $117.63.^[2]

Implications

ConfirmedUS bond prices rose in October because their yields fell.
Our readingIf the drop holds, US mortgage rates could ease a little.
Our readingA Fed rate hike in December could reverse the move.

Still unknown

Whether the Fed hikes in December
How markets react to the US midterm elections
Whether the tech stock selloff continues

Who it affects

United States, Global. People who hold bonds or bond funds, take mortgages or follow interest rates

Sources

U.S. Department of the Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, October 2026 October 30, 2026 · official
Reuters: Stocks fall on AI cash burn worries while bonds rally with oil October 30, 2026 · media

Cover as an image

Did this make it clearer?

Cover: Freekonomist graphic, a symbolic image, not a photo of the event. This is a news explainer, not financial advice.

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