Macro.
In plain words.
From inflation and rates to repo and the Fed balance sheet. Not just numbers: what each one is, why it matters and what it moves in crypto, currencies, oil and stocks.
Where does the market see the rate?
The market prices a hike with 18% probability. The rate after the meeting about 3.93% (+4 bp vs now)
The market prices a hike with 90% probability. The rate after the meeting about 4.15% (+27 bp vs now)
The market prices a hike with 44% probability. The rate after the meeting about 4.26% (+38 bp vs now)
The market prices a hike with 66% probability. The rate after the meeting about 4.43% (+55 bp vs now)
The market prices a hike with 38% probability. The rate after the meeting about 4.52% (+64 bp vs now)
The market prices a hike with 37% probability. The rate after the meeting about 4.61% (+73 bp vs now)
Computed from 30-day fed funds futures prices (CME, via Yahoo Finance) with a method similar to CME FedWatch. Market expectations, not a forecast or a Fed promise. Current range 3.75–4.00%, EFFR 3.88%. Fed calendar · updated
Just the essentials: a short summary, prices and what to do next.Numbers with an explanation of what they mean and why they matter.Everything, plus a table with exact numbers and sources.
- US inflation3.72% · September 2026
- Fed rate4.00% · Oct 19
- The Feddecision on Oct 28: the market prices a hold (82%)
- US 10-year yield5.10% · Oct 15
All numbers in one table
The day change is from the previous session close; for crypto, over 24 hours.
Open when you want to go deeper
Tap the i on any indicator: what it is, why it matters and how it moves markets.
Inflation
How fast US prices are rising and what the Fed does about it. Charts and history →
CPI inflation, y/y
September 2026prev 3.35% · +0.37 pp
Consumer price growth over a year. The Fed targets about 2%. Above target means rates stay high for longer, which weighs on crypto and stocks.
FRED · CPIAUCSL · BLS
Core CPI, y/y
September 2026prev 2.45% · +0.12 pp
CPI without food and energy. Shows the sticky part of inflation, which the Fed watches more closely.
FRED · CPILFESL · BLS
CPI, m/m
September 2026prev 0.40% · +0.25 pp
How prices changed over the last month. The quickest read on an inflation turn.
FRED · CPIAUCSL · BLS
PCE inflation
August 2026prev 3.36% · +0.06 pp
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge: prices of all consumer spending.
FRED · PCEPI · BEA
Core PCE
August 2026prev 2.98% · +0.03 pp
PCE without food and energy. The Fed measures its 2% target against it.
FRED · PCEPILFE · BEA
10-year breakeven inflation
Oct 16prev 2.32% · +0.03 pp
The average 10-year inflation the bond market prices in.
FRED · T10YIE · FRB St. Louis
The Fed and rates
The price of money in the US: the Fed rate and what the market prices for the next meetings. Charts and history →
Fed funds rate, upper bound
Oct 19prev 4.00% · 0.00 pp
The anchor for every dollar interest rate. Higher means pricier credit and less money in risk assets.
FRED · DFEDTARU · Federal Reserve
Effective fed funds rate
Oct 16prev 3.88% · 0.00 pp
The actual average rate at which banks lend to each other overnight.
FRED · EFFR · FRBNY
SOFR
Oct 16prev 3.89% · −0.01 pp
The overnight repo rate against Treasuries. A spike means money is getting scarce.
FRED · SOFR · FRBNY
30-year mortgage
Oct 15prev 7.40% · 0.00 pp
The average US mortgage rate. Shows how the Fed rate reaches households.
FRED · MORTGAGE30US · Freddie Mac
Liquidity
How much money sloshes around the system. Liquidity often moves crypto and stocks more than headlines. Charts and history →
Fed balance sheet
Oct 14prev $6.75T · +$8.0B
The Fed's assets. Shrinking (QT) drains liquidity, growth adds it.
FRED · WALCL · Federal Reserve (H.4.1)
Bank reserves
Oct 14prev $3.03T · −$7.6B
Banks' money at the Fed. When it runs low, money markets get nervous.
FRED · WRESBAL · Federal Reserve (H.4.1)
Reverse repo (ON RRP)
Oct 16prev $1.2B · −$1.1B
Money funds park at the Fed. A liquidity buffer: the smaller it is, the thinner the cushion.
FRED · RRPONTSYD · FRBNY
Treasury account (TGA)
Oct 14prev $880B · +$3.1B
The US government's cash at the Fed. When it fills up, liquidity leaves the market.
FRED · WTREGEN · Federal Reserve (H.4.1)
M2 money supply, y/y
August 2026prev 5.41% · +0.25 pp
How fast the amount of money in the economy is growing.
FRED · M2SL · Federal Reserve (H.6)
Yields
US Treasuries: the reference point for pricing every asset in the world. Charts and history →
2-year yield
Oct 15prev 4.82% · −0.05 pp
The point on the curve most sensitive to Fed rate expectations.
FRED · DGS2 · Federal Reserve (H.15)
10-year yield
Oct 15prev 5.19% · −0.09 pp
The world's key rate: mortgages and stock valuations are priced off it.
FRED · DGS10 · Federal Reserve (H.15)
30-year yield
Oct 15prev 5.52% · −0.09 pp
Long-dated US debt. It rises when the market worries about deficits and inflation.
FRED · DGS30 · Federal Reserve (H.15)
10-year real yield
Oct 15prev 2.84% · −0.06 pp
The yield after expected inflation. Gold's main enemy.
FRED · DFII10 · Federal Reserve (H.15)
10y−2y curve
Oct 16prev 0.33% · +0.02 pp
The 10-year minus 2-year yield gap. Below zero (inversion) has historically warned of recession.
FRED · T10Y2Y · FRB St. Louis
Jobs
A strong labour market lets the Fed hold rates, a weak one brings cuts closer. Charts and history →
Unemployment rate
September 2026prev 4.10% · +0.10 pp
The share of job seekers without work.
FRED · UNRATE · BLS
Jobless claims
Oct 10prev 198K · +1
New weekly unemployment claims. The fastest labour-market signal.
FRED · ICSA · U.S. Dept. of Labor
Growth
Whether the US economy is growing and how much money circulates in it. Charts and history →
GDP growth
Q2 2026prev 2.50% · −0.30 pp
US quarterly growth, annualised.
FRED · A191RL1Q225SBEA · BEA
M2 money supply
August 2026prev $23.22T · +$125B
US cash, deposits and money market funds.
FRED · M2SL · Federal Reserve (H.6)
What will the Fed do on Oct 28?
Pick one, then compare with the market. Your answer stays in your browser only.
What is due this week
High-impact releases: markets move the most around them.
- GBPCPI y/yforecast 3.4% · prev 3.1%
ForexFactory calendar, high-impact events. Times shown in your time zone.
Central bank rates
Money flows to where rates are higher. Rate gaps move currency pairs.
| Central bank | Currency | Rate | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Federal Reserve | USD | 4.00% | Oct 19 | FRED |
| European Central Bank | EUR | 2.50% | Oct 19 | FRED |
| Bank of England | GBP | 3.75% | Oct 16 | Bank of England |
| Bank of Japan | JPY | 1.25% | Oct 15 | Bank of Japan |
| Swiss National Bank | CHF | 0.00% | Oct 16 | Swiss National Bank |
| Reserve Bank of Australia | AUD | 4.60% | Oct 16 | Reserve Bank of Australia |
| Bank of Canada | CAD | 2.25% | Oct 12 | Bank of Canada |
10-year bond yields
10-year government bonds. US: daily Fed H.15 data, others: OECD monthly averages. FRED
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