Australian dollar falls to its lowest since March after RBA hike

What happened. According to news.com.au, the Australian dollar finished the week 2.3% weaker against the US dollar, at about 68.66 US cents. That is its lowest level since March. NAB chief economist Sally Auld called it the worst-performing G10 currency of the week.

Reason one: the rate and the RBA's tone. The board raised the rate to 4.85% by a 6 to 3 vote. It is the fifth hike this year and the highest level since 2008. FOREX.com also says the statement dropped its hint of more hikes. The currency fell 0.5% straight after the decision. Markets now see a peak in rates: Trading Economics says swaps imply about an 80% chance that rates have already peaked.

Reason two: the stock sell-off. On November 5, Convera reports, the S&P 500 was down 4.0% heading into the close, the Nasdaq 5.4% and the Dow Jones 3.3%. Markets worried about what the Democratic win in the US election could mean for AI companies and data centre rules. The Australian dollar is seen as a risk currency, and that day it fell 1.0%. That was its biggest one-day drop since October 15.

Reason three: commodities and the US dollar. News.com.au says copper fell to its lowest since July, while Brent crude held around US$98 a barrel. US jobs data beat forecasts: 165,000 jobs added against 65,000 expected. FOREX.com says bets on a Fed hike in December returned to 80%.

What is next. US inflation (CPI) is due on Tuesday and PPI on Friday. A FOREX.com analyst points to record bets against the Australian dollar in futures. That is his view, not a fact about the future rate. We make no price forecasts.

Who it affects. Anyone who pays or earns in Australian dollars: travellers, students, exporters, importers and holders of Australian assets.

Fatos confirmados

• On November 3 the RBA raised its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85%: six board members voted for, three to leave it at 4.60%.^[1][2]
• The Australian dollar finished the week 2.3% weaker against the US dollar, at about 68.66 US cents, its lowest since March.^[2]
• NAB chief economist Sally Auld said it was the worst-performing G10 currency of the week.^[2]
• The Australian dollar fell 0.5% straight after the RBA decision.^[2]
• It was the fifth rate hike this year, and the cash rate is the highest since 2008.^[2]
• FOREX.com says the RBA removed language suggesting further hikes.^[4]
• Markets are pricing in an RBA rate cut by December 2027 (CommSec, via news.com.au).^[2]
• Trading Economics says swaps imply about an 80% chance that Australian rates have peaked, and about 30 basis points of easing by the end of next year.^[5]
• The RBA does not expect inflation to reach the top of its 2-3% target range until late 2027.^[1]
• On November 5, heading into the close, the S&P 500 was down 4.0%, the Nasdaq 5.4% and the Dow Jones 3.3%. AUD/USD fell 1.0%, its biggest one-day decline since October 15.^[3]
• Copper fell to its lowest since July, and Brent crude was around US$98 a barrel on Friday night.^[2]
• US employment rose by 165,000 against 65,000 expected, unemployment fell to 4.1%, and bets on a Fed hike in December returned to 80%.^[4]
• US inflation (CPI) is due on Tuesday and PPI on Friday.^[4]
• A FOREX.com analyst notes record bets against the Australian dollar in futures.^[4]
• RBA board member Marnie Baker is due to speak on Thursday.^[5]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoBy the end of last week the Australian dollar was at its lowest since March.
• ConfirmadoMarkets no longer expect more RBA hikes and are pricing in a cut.
• Nossa leituraHot US inflation could support the US dollar and add pressure on the Australian dollar. Soft data could work the other way. This is our view.
• Nossa leituraWhile stocks stay nervous, risk currencies, including the Australian dollar, are likely to react strongly to market news. This is our view.

Ainda não se sabe

• What the US inflation (CPI) data will show on November 10
• Whether global stocks hold after the sell-off
• What the RBA will say about its next steps in the coming days

Quem é afetado

Australia, United States, World. People who pay or earn in Australian dollars, and people who follow the currency market

Fontes

1. Reserve Bank of Australia: Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision 3 de novembro de 2026 · oficial
2. news.com.au: Aussie dollar drops to lowest level since March after RBA interest rate hike 9 de novembro de 2026 · mídia
3. Convera: AUD plunges as US stocks suffer biggest fall since “Liberation Day” 5 de novembro de 2026 · mídia
4. FOREX.com: Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Bears Eye March Low as US CPI Looms 8 de novembro de 2026 · mídia
5. Trading Economics: Australian Dollar Trades Near Multi-Month Low 8 de novembro de 2026 · mídia