Australian dollar falls to its lowest since March after RBA hike

What happened. According to news.com.au, the Australian dollar finished the week 2.3% weaker against the US dollar, at about 68.66 US cents. That is its lowest level since March. NAB chief economist Sally Auld called it the worst-performing G10 currency of the week.

Reason one: the rate and the RBA's tone. The board raised the rate to 4.85% by a 6 to 3 vote. It is the fifth hike this year and the highest level since 2008. FOREX.com also says the statement dropped its hint of more hikes. The currency fell 0.5% straight after the decision. Markets now see a peak in rates: Trading Economics says swaps imply about an 80% chance that rates have already peaked.

Reason two: the stock sell-off. On November 5, Convera reports, the S&P 500 was down 4.0% heading into the close, the Nasdaq 5.4% and the Dow Jones 3.3%. Markets worried about what the Democratic win in the US election could mean for AI companies and data centre rules. The Australian dollar is seen as a risk currency, and that day it fell 1.0%. That was its biggest one-day drop since October 15.

Reason three: commodities and the US dollar. News.com.au says copper fell to its lowest since July, while Brent crude held around US$98 a barrel. US jobs data beat forecasts: 165,000 jobs added against 65,000 expected. FOREX.com says bets on a Fed hike in December returned to 80%.

What is next. US inflation (CPI) is due on Tuesday and PPI on Friday. A FOREX.com analyst points to record bets against the Australian dollar in futures. That is his view, not a fact about the future rate. We make no price forecasts.

Who it affects. Anyone who pays or earns in Australian dollars: travellers, students, exporters, importers and holders of Australian assets.

已确认的事实

• On November 3 the RBA raised its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85%: six board members voted for, three to leave it at 4.60%.^[1][2]
• The Australian dollar finished the week 2.3% weaker against the US dollar, at about 68.66 US cents, its lowest since March.^[2]
• NAB chief economist Sally Auld said it was the worst-performing G10 currency of the week.^[2]
• The Australian dollar fell 0.5% straight after the RBA decision.^[2]
• It was the fifth rate hike this year, and the cash rate is the highest since 2008.^[2]
• FOREX.com says the RBA removed language suggesting further hikes.^[4]
• Markets are pricing in an RBA rate cut by December 2027 (CommSec, via news.com.au).^[2]
• Trading Economics says swaps imply about an 80% chance that Australian rates have peaked, and about 30 basis points of easing by the end of next year.^[5]
• The RBA does not expect inflation to reach the top of its 2-3% target range until late 2027.^[1]
• On November 5, heading into the close, the S&P 500 was down 4.0%, the Nasdaq 5.4% and the Dow Jones 3.3%. AUD/USD fell 1.0%, its biggest one-day decline since October 15.^[3]
• Copper fell to its lowest since July, and Brent crude was around US$98 a barrel on Friday night.^[2]
• US employment rose by 165,000 against 65,000 expected, unemployment fell to 4.1%, and bets on a Fed hike in December returned to 80%.^[4]
• US inflation (CPI) is due on Tuesday and PPI on Friday.^[4]
• A FOREX.com analyst notes record bets against the Australian dollar in futures.^[4]
• RBA board member Marnie Baker is due to speak on Thursday.^[5]

影响

• 已确认By the end of last week the Australian dollar was at its lowest since March.
• 已确认Markets no longer expect more RBA hikes and are pricing in a cut.
• 我们的解读Hot US inflation could support the US dollar and add pressure on the Australian dollar. Soft data could work the other way. This is our view.
• 我们的解读While stocks stay nervous, risk currencies, including the Australian dollar, are likely to react strongly to market news. This is our view.

仍未知

• What the US inflation (CPI) data will show on November 10
• Whether global stocks hold after the sell-off
• What the RBA will say about its next steps in the coming days

影响到谁

Australia, United States, World. People who pay or earn in Australian dollars, and people who follow the currency market

来源

1. Reserve Bank of Australia: Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision 2026年11月3日 · 官方
2. news.com.au: Aussie dollar drops to lowest level since March after RBA interest rate hike 2026年11月9日 · 媒体
3. Convera: AUD plunges as US stocks suffer biggest fall since “Liberation Day” 2026年11月5日 · 媒体
4. FOREX.com: Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Bears Eye March Low as US CPI Looms 2026年11月8日 · 媒体
5. Trading Economics: Australian Dollar Trades Near Multi-Month Low 2026年11月8日 · 媒体