India inflation hits 6.09%, a two-year high above the RBI band

The release. The consumer price index (base 2024 = 100) rose 6.09% in October 2026 from October 2025. That is a provisional estimate. September's final reading was 5.54%. Rural prices rose 6.63% and urban prices 5.41%. Food prices (the CFPI index) rose 8.94%, up from 7.74% a month earlier.

Nine rises in a row. In January 2026 inflation on the new base was 2.74%. It has risen every month since and is now more than twice as high. DBS Bank economist Radhika Rao says price pressure is spreading beyond food.

What got pricier. Onions rose 116.22% on the year, garlic 60.74%, silver jewellery 52.39%, ginger 48.32% and lemons 47.30%. Potatoes (minus 14.24%) and cauliflower (minus 10.57%) got cheaper. Restaurants and hotels rose 10.06%, transport 5.84%, housing and utilities 2.90%.

Where it bites most. Among large states, Tamil Nadu (7.29%), Telangana (7.26%) and Andhra Pradesh (7.25%) had the highest rates.

What economists expect. ICRA chief economist Aditi Nayar calls another 25 basis point hike in December almost certain. She expects inflation near 6.1% in November. Kotak Mahindra Bank expects a further 50 basis points of hikes by the end of the fiscal year (March 2027). These are forecasts, not decisions.

Limits. October data are provisional and can be revised. The 2024-base series is new, so it should not be compared directly with the old one.

已确认的事实

• India's retail inflation was 6.09% year on year in October 2026 (provisional), against 5.54% in September.^[1][2]
• Rural inflation was 6.63% and urban inflation 5.41%.^[1][2]
• Food prices (CFPI) rose 8.94%, up from 7.74% in September.^[1][2]
• Inflation moved above the RBI's 2-6% tolerance band.^[2]
• Inflation was 2.74% in January 2026; October was the ninth rise in a row.^[1][2]
• Onions rose 116.22%, garlic 60.74%, potatoes fell 14.24%.^[1][2]
• Among large states, Tamil Nadu (7.29%), Telangana (7.26%) and Andhra Pradesh (7.25%) had the highest inflation.^[1][2]
• November CPI is due on 14 December 2026.^[1]
• ICRA sees a 25 bp December hike as almost certain; Kotak expects a further 50 bp in FY27.^[2]

影响

• 已确认Economists at major banks expect the RBI to raise rates again in December.
• 已确认Costly food hits rural areas harder: inflation there is above the urban rate.
• 我们的解读If rates rise, rupee loans get costlier, which usually weighs on Indian stocks. This is our inference.

仍未知

• What the RBI decides at its December meeting.
• How much the winter crop will ease vegetable prices.
• Whether the provisional October figure will be revised.

影响到谁

India, Asia, Global. People holding Indian stocks or rupees, those tracking emerging market rates, and residents of India

来源

1. Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (PIB): Press release of Consumer Price Index on base 2024=100 for October, 2026 2026年11月12日 · 官方
2. Moneycontrol: India's retail inflation breaches RBI's 6% upper tolerance limit in October as food prices surge 2026年11月12日 · 媒体