India inflation hits 6.09%, a two-year high above the RBI band
India's retail inflation rose to 6.09% in October from 5.54% in September, breaking above the central bank's 2-6% tolerance band. Food is the main driver, up 8.94%.
Evento: 12 de noviembre de 2026
Fuente primaria: 12 de noviembre de 2026
Publicado aquí: 12 de noviembre de 2026 a las 12:56 UTC
Leer: 2 min
Qué pasó
On 12 November India's statistics ministry (MoSPI) said consumer prices rose 6.09% from a year earlier in October. September was 5.54%. The figure is provisional. Food prices rose 8.94%; rural inflation was 6.63% and urban 5.41%.
Por qué te importa
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) targets 4% within a 2% to 6% band. Inflation is now above that band. Economists at ICRA and Kotak Mahindra Bank expect another rate hike in December. That means costlier rupee loans, and the rupee and Indian stocks react to such moves.
Qué revisar y vigilar
The next CPI release is due on 14 December 2026. Watch onion and garlic prices, the winter crop and the RBI's December decision.
Dónde está pasando
LIVEArrastra para girar. Puntos verdes: la bolsa está operando ahora mismo (horario normal, sin contar festivos). Sombra: donde ahora es de noche. Fronteras: Natural Earth, terremotos: USGS. Idea de las capas: God’s Eye View (MIT).
The release. The consumer price index (base 2024 = 100) rose 6.09% in October 2026 from October 2025. That is a provisional estimate. September's final reading was 5.54%. Rural prices rose 6.63% and urban prices 5.41%. Food prices (the CFPI index) rose 8.94%, up from 7.74% a month earlier.
Nine rises in a row. In January 2026 inflation on the new base was 2.74%. It has risen every month since and is now more than twice as high. DBS Bank economist Radhika Rao says price pressure is spreading beyond food.
What got pricier. Onions rose 116.22% on the year, garlic 60.74%, silver jewellery 52.39%, ginger 48.32% and lemons 47.30%. Potatoes (minus 14.24%) and cauliflower (minus 10.57%) got cheaper. Restaurants and hotels rose 10.06%, transport 5.84%, housing and utilities 2.90%.
Where it bites most. Among large states, Tamil Nadu (7.29%), Telangana (7.26%) and Andhra Pradesh (7.25%) had the highest rates.
What economists expect. ICRA chief economist Aditi Nayar calls another 25 basis point hike in December almost certain. She expects inflation near 6.1% in November. Kotak Mahindra Bank expects a further 50 basis points of hikes by the end of the fiscal year (March 2027). These are forecasts, not decisions.
Limits. October data are provisional and can be revised. The 2024-base series is new, so it should not be compared directly with the old one.
Hechos confirmados
- India's retail inflation was 6.09% year on year in October 2026 (provisional), against 5.54% in September.[1][2]
- Rural inflation was 6.63% and urban inflation 5.41%.[1][2]
- Food prices (CFPI) rose 8.94%, up from 7.74% in September.[1][2]
- Inflation moved above the RBI's 2-6% tolerance band.[2]
- Inflation was 2.74% in January 2026; October was the ninth rise in a row.[1][2]
- Onions rose 116.22%, garlic 60.74%, potatoes fell 14.24%.[1][2]
- Among large states, Tamil Nadu (7.29%), Telangana (7.26%) and Andhra Pradesh (7.25%) had the highest inflation.[1][2]
- November CPI is due on 14 December 2026.[1]
- ICRA sees a 25 bp December hike as almost certain; Kotak expects a further 50 bp in FY27.[2]
Implicaciones
- ConfirmadoEconomists at major banks expect the RBI to raise rates again in December.
- ConfirmadoCostly food hits rural areas harder: inflation there is above the urban rate.
- Nuestra lecturaIf rates rise, rupee loans get costlier, which usually weighs on Indian stocks. This is our inference.
Todavía no se sabe
- What the RBI decides at its December meeting.
- How much the winter crop will ease vegetable prices.
- Whether the provisional October figure will be revised.
A quién afecta
India, Asia, Global. People holding Indian stocks or rupees, those tracking emerging market rates, and residents of India
Fuentes
- Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (PIB): Press release of Consumer Price Index on base 2024=100 for October, 2026 12 de noviembre de 2026 · oficial
- Moneycontrol: India's retail inflation breaches RBI's 6% upper tolerance limit in October as food prices surge 12 de noviembre de 2026 · medios
Portada: Gráfico de Freekonomist, una imagen simbólica, no una foto del evento. Esta es una explicación de noticias, no asesoramiento financiero.
Más historias
BBAS3: Banco do Brasil stock drops over 10% as Q3 profit falls 66.5%
BBAS3, the Banco do Brasil share, fell more than 10% in early trade on 12 November after third-quarter profit dropped 66.5% to R$1.27 billion, farm-loan defaults rose and the bank cut its guidance and payout.
Serbia surprises with a rate hike to 6%, its first in over three years
The National Bank of Serbia raised its key rate by 0.25 points to 6% to stop costly energy from spreading to other prices. Economists polled by Bloomberg had expected a hold.
Singapore Airlines FY2027 interim dividend: 7 cents a share
Singapore Airlines FY2027 interim dividend is 7 Singapore cents a share, 2 ordinary and 5 special, even as first-half net profit fell 43.9% to S$134 million on fuel costs.
Morning brief by email
The night's key moves and what matters today, in 2 minutes. One-click unsubscribe.
BloFin
3M
7M
40M
60M
80M
250M