India inflation hits 6.09%, a two-year high above the RBI band
India's retail inflation rose to 6.09% in October from 5.54% in September, breaking above the central bank's 2-6% tolerance band. Food is the main driver, up 8.94%.
Event: November 12, 2026
Primary source: November 12, 2026
Published here: November 12, 2026 at 12:56 PM UTC
Read: 2 min
What happened
On 12 November India's statistics ministry (MoSPI) said consumer prices rose 6.09% from a year earlier in October. September was 5.54%. The figure is provisional. Food prices rose 8.94%; rural inflation was 6.63% and urban 5.41%.
Why it matters to you
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) targets 4% within a 2% to 6% band. Inflation is now above that band. Economists at ICRA and Kotak Mahindra Bank expect another rate hike in December. That means costlier rupee loans, and the rupee and Indian stocks react to such moves.
What to check and watch
The next CPI release is due on 14 December 2026. Watch onion and garlic prices, the winter crop and the RBI's December decision.
Where it’s happening
LIVEDrag to spin. Green dots: the exchange is trading right now (regular hours, holidays not counted). Shadow: where it is night now. Borders: Natural Earth, quakes: USGS. Layer idea: God’s Eye View (MIT).
The release. The consumer price index (base 2024 = 100) rose 6.09% in October 2026 from October 2025. That is a provisional estimate. September's final reading was 5.54%. Rural prices rose 6.63% and urban prices 5.41%. Food prices (the CFPI index) rose 8.94%, up from 7.74% a month earlier.
Nine rises in a row. In January 2026 inflation on the new base was 2.74%. It has risen every month since and is now more than twice as high. DBS Bank economist Radhika Rao says price pressure is spreading beyond food.
What got pricier. Onions rose 116.22% on the year, garlic 60.74%, silver jewellery 52.39%, ginger 48.32% and lemons 47.30%. Potatoes (minus 14.24%) and cauliflower (minus 10.57%) got cheaper. Restaurants and hotels rose 10.06%, transport 5.84%, housing and utilities 2.90%.
Where it bites most. Among large states, Tamil Nadu (7.29%), Telangana (7.26%) and Andhra Pradesh (7.25%) had the highest rates.
What economists expect. ICRA chief economist Aditi Nayar calls another 25 basis point hike in December almost certain. She expects inflation near 6.1% in November. Kotak Mahindra Bank expects a further 50 basis points of hikes by the end of the fiscal year (March 2027). These are forecasts, not decisions.
Limits. October data are provisional and can be revised. The 2024-base series is new, so it should not be compared directly with the old one.
Confirmed facts
- India's retail inflation was 6.09% year on year in October 2026 (provisional), against 5.54% in September.[1][2]
- Rural inflation was 6.63% and urban inflation 5.41%.[1][2]
- Food prices (CFPI) rose 8.94%, up from 7.74% in September.[1][2]
- Inflation moved above the RBI's 2-6% tolerance band.[2]
- Inflation was 2.74% in January 2026; October was the ninth rise in a row.[1][2]
- Onions rose 116.22%, garlic 60.74%, potatoes fell 14.24%.[1][2]
- Among large states, Tamil Nadu (7.29%), Telangana (7.26%) and Andhra Pradesh (7.25%) had the highest inflation.[1][2]
- November CPI is due on 14 December 2026.[1]
- ICRA sees a 25 bp December hike as almost certain; Kotak expects a further 50 bp in FY27.[2]
Implications
- ConfirmedEconomists at major banks expect the RBI to raise rates again in December.
- ConfirmedCostly food hits rural areas harder: inflation there is above the urban rate.
- Our readingIf rates rise, rupee loans get costlier, which usually weighs on Indian stocks. This is our inference.
Still unknown
- What the RBI decides at its December meeting.
- How much the winter crop will ease vegetable prices.
- Whether the provisional October figure will be revised.
Who it affects
India, Asia, Global. People holding Indian stocks or rupees, those tracking emerging market rates, and residents of India
Sources
Cover: Freekonomist graphic, a symbolic image, not a photo of the event. This is a news explainer, not financial advice.
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