Brazil's inflation slows to 0.32% a month, below forecasts

IPCA-15 is compiled by the statistics agency IBGE. It is the same consumer price index as the official IPCA, but prices are collected on different dates. This time prices from 16 September to 14 October were compared with the month before. That is why IPCA-15 works as an early signal for official inflation.

In October the index rose 0.32% after 0.70% in September. Prices are up 4.15% since the start of the year and 4.62% over 12 months. The annual pace edged up from 4.47%, but came in below the 4.73% forecast in a Reuters poll.

The main brake was housing and utilities: the group got 0.10% cheaper. Home electricity fell 0.89% after a 7.42% jump in September. The reason is a switch of the tariff flag from yellow to green, meaning no extra charge for consumers. Airfares fell 9.24%.

Food is going the other way. Food and drinks rose 0.88%, food at home 1.01%. Fuel rose 1.20%, diesel 3.70%. Prices went up in eight of nine groups of goods and services.

Last month Brazil's central bank cut its rate for a fifth time in a row by 0.25 percentage point, to 13.75%. The next meeting is on 3-4 November. Reuters notes the data came out ahead of a tight presidential runoff, and economists call the election an important risk for the budget and inflation.

Fatos confirmados

• IPCA-15 rose 0.32% in October 2026 after 0.70% in September.^[1][2]
• Economists in a Reuters poll expected 0.43% for the month and 4.73% for the year.^[2]
• IPCA-15 is up 4.15% year to date and 4.62% over 12 months, after 4.47% a month earlier.^[1][2]
• Housing fell 0.10% and home electricity 0.89% after rising 7.42% in September, as the tariff flag switched from yellow to green.^[1]
• Airfares fell 9.24%, the biggest downward contribution of the month.^[1]
• Food and drinks rose 0.88%, food at home 1.01%.^[1][2]
• Fuel rose 1.20%, diesel 3.70%.^[1]
• Prices rose in eight of nine groups of goods and services.^[1]
• Brazil's central bank targets inflation at 3% plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.^[2]
• Last month the bank delivered a fifth straight 25 basis point cut to 13.75%. The next meeting is on 3-4 November.^[2]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoBrazil's October inflation came in softer than economists expected.
• Nossa leituraSoft data raise the chance of another rate cut in November.
• Nossa leituraThe outcome of the runoff may move the real more than this data.

Ainda não se sabe

• What the Brazilian central bank will decide on 3-4 November.
• Whether electricity and airfares keep getting cheaper in the coming months.

Quem é afetado

Brazil. Those who trade the real, Brazilian stocks or follow emerging markets

Fontes

1. IBGE: O IPCA-15 é de 0,32% em outubro 23 de outubro de 2026 · oficial
2. Reuters via AOL: Brazil mid-month inflation undershoots forecasts ahead of presidential runoff 23 de outubro de 2026 · mídia