Russia's central bank holds its rate at 14% and sees inflation up to 7.6%

What the bank decided. The board kept the key rate at 14%. The press release says the economy is growing moderately in the second half, while price pressure remains elevated. The bank puts underlying price growth at 5-6% annualised, mainly because of a temporary drop in production capacity in some industries.

What is happening with prices. In the third quarter, seasonally adjusted prices grew at an 8% annualised pace after 4.8% in the second. Core inflation, which leaves out the most volatile goods, rose to 6.2% from 4.5%. Motor fuel had the biggest effect. Household and business inflation expectations eased a little in October but have stayed near two-year highs in recent months.

What comes next. The bank updated its forecast: in 2027 the average key rate will be 12.5-13.5% and inflation will return to the 4% target. So in its base case, cuts continue, just not right away. Stocks took it calmly: the MOEX index was up 0.17% by 14:20 Moscow time, according to Investing.com. The decision matched what most analysts expected.

Who it affects. People with ruble deposits and loans, anyone thinking about a mortgage or buying foreign currency, and investors in Russian bonds and shares.

Fatos confirmados

• On 23 October 2026 the Bank of Russia kept its key rate at 14.00% a year.^[1][2]
• The bank estimates annual inflation at 6.8% as of 19 October and expects 7.1-7.6% for the full year.^[1]
• In the third quarter, seasonally adjusted prices grew at an 8.0% annualised pace after 4.8% in the second; core inflation was 6.2% after 4.5%.^[1]
• The bank estimates underlying price growth at 5-6% annualised.^[1]
• The bank's base case: an average key rate of 12.5-13.5% in 2027, with inflation back at 4.0% in 2027.^[1]
• A summary of the rate discussion comes out on 5 November; the next meeting is on 18 December 2026.^[1]
• By 14:20 Moscow time the dollar was down 1.69% at 80.51 rubles and the euro down 1.85% at 90.135 rubles; the MOEX index was up 0.17%.^[2]
• The decision matched what most analysts expected.^[2]

Implicações

• Nossa leituraWith the key rate at 14%, banks have little reason to cut deposit and loan rates sharply for now.
• ConfirmadoIn its base case the bank expects an average rate of 12.5-13.5% in 2027.
• Nossa leituraIf inflation does not slow, the rate may stay unchanged in December too.

Ainda não se sabe

• Whether the bank cuts on 18 December.
• Whether the ruble's gain lasts beyond one day.
• How fast the effect of expensive fuel fades.

Quem é afetado

Russia. People with ruble deposits and loans, future mortgage borrowers, investors in Russian assets

Fontes

1. Банк России: Банк России принял решение сохранить ключевую ставку на уровне 14,00% годовых 23 de outubro de 2026 · oficial
2. Investing.com: Рубль растет почти на 2% к доллару и евро после решения ЦБ 23 de outubro de 2026 · mídia