Eurozone growth slows to a 4-month low as France slips into decline

PMI is a monthly survey of purchasing managers. They are asked whether orders, output, prices and staff went up compared with the previous month. A reading above 50 means growth, below 50 means decline. Flash data come out before official statistics, so markets watch them closely.

In October the eurozone composite index fell to 51.9 from 53.1. The economy is still growing for a fourth month in a row, but at the slowest pace in this run. The services index fell to 51.7 from 53.0, the manufacturing PMI to 52.4 from 52.9. S&P Global Market Intelligence chief business economist Chris Williamson says the numbers are consistent with GDP growth of 0.3% a quarter.

The weak spot is France. Its composite index fell to 48.4 from 51.1, so business is shrinking again. Business confidence there is the lowest since 2012 if the pandemic is excluded. Strikes and political instability played a part. Germany kept growing, but more slowly: 52.8 after 53.8.

The second problem is prices. Factories are paying more and more for inputs, with costs rising at the fastest pace since May, and firms blame energy, fuel and transport. Yet prices charged to customers rose more slowly than in September, so businesses are absorbing part of the cost. Hiring has nearly stalled, and confidence is at a five-month low.

Williamson writes that the mix of growth and stubborn inflation will fuel talk of tighter ECB policy. A Reuters poll found the ECB will hold its deposit rate at 2.50% next week and raise it by 0.25 percentage point in December.

Fatos confirmados

• The flash eurozone composite PMI was 51.9 in October 2026 after 53.1 in September, a four-month low.^[1][4]
• A Reuters poll had expected 52.7.^[4]
• The services business activity index fell to 51.7 from 53.0, the manufacturing PMI to 52.4 from 52.9.^[1][4]
• France's composite PMI fell to 48.4 from 51.1, signalling contraction.^[2]
• Germany's composite PMI eased to 52.8 from 53.8.^[3]
• Manufacturing input costs rose at the fastest pace since May, which respondents linked to energy, fuel and transport.^[1]
• Output prices rose more slowly than in September.^[1]
• Employment was broadly unchanged, business confidence hit a five-month low, and in France the lowest since 2012 excluding the pandemic.^[1][4]
• S&P Global's Chris Williamson said the data are consistent with eurozone GDP growth of 0.3% a quarter.^[1]
• A Reuters poll found the ECB will hold the deposit rate at 2.50% next week and raise it by 25 basis points in December.^[4]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoEurozone growth slowed at the start of the fourth quarter.
• Nossa leituraRising costs with softer demand raise the chance of an ECB hike in December.
• Nossa leituraFrance's weakness may keep weighing on its bonds and on the euro.

Ainda não se sabe

• How far the final PMI data will differ from the flash.
• How the ECB will weigh this survey at its next meeting.

Quem é afetado

Eurozone, France, Germany. Those who trade the euro, European stocks and bonds, or follow ECB rates

Fontes

1. S&P Global: S&P Global Flash Eurozone PMI: October sees softer expansion in eurozone output 23 de outubro de 2026 · oficial
2. S&P Global: S&P Global Flash France PMI: French private sector slips back into contraction in October 23 de outubro de 2026 · oficial
3. S&P Global: S&P Global Flash Germany PMI: German business activity growth softens in October 23 de outubro de 2026 · oficial
4. Reuters via Investing.com: Euro zone growth slows to 4-month low amid rising costs and French turmoil, PMI shows 23 de outubro de 2026 · mídia