Central banks buy 321 tonnes of gold, the fastest pace since late 2024

Central banks. Net buying was 321 tonnes in July to September, up from 226 tonnes a year earlier, a 42% rise. Year to date it is 675 tonnes, 6% more than in the same period of 2025. According to Bloomberg, almost two thirds of that buying was not disclosed by the central banks themselves. The WGC estimates it with consultancy Metals Focus from public data, trade statistics and field research.

Funds. Gold ETFs are exchange-traded funds that hold physical gold. In the second quarter 47 tonnes left them, in the third 211 tonnes came in. The WGC links the inflow to worries about government debt and inflation.

Retail. Bars and coins came to 268 tonnes, 19% less than a year ago, as buyers waited for a clearer price trend. Jewellery was 313 tonnes, down 17%. That is the weakest third quarter in the WGC's data. In money terms jewellery demand still rose 2% to $43 billion, because gold is expensive.

The whole market. Total demand including over-the-counter deals was 1,369 tonnes, down 1% in a year. For nine months it is 3,881 tonnes, almost the 3,884 tonne record of 2025. In value it is a record, $566 billion. Gold used in technology rose 3%, mostly thanks to AI-related manufacturing.

Supply. Mine output was 1,071 tonnes, a record for a third quarter, up 3%. Recycling of old gold fell 8% to 314 tonnes, a three-year low.

The price. The LBMA average price for the quarter was $4,262 an ounce. On the WGC page at the time we checked, the spot price was about $3,926, below the third-quarter average.

Where to look. Gold, oil and gas on one page: https://freekonomist.com/en/commodities/ . This is an overview, not advice.

Fatos confirmados

• Central bank and other institutional buying in Q3 2026 was 321 tonnes (321.2), up 42% year on year.^[1][2]
• This is the fastest pace of central bank buying since the end of 2024.^[2]
• Year to date, central banks bought 675 tonnes, up 6% year on year.^[1][2]
• Almost two thirds of the estimated central bank buying was not disclosed by the monetary authorities.^[2]
• Gold ETFs added 211 tonnes in Q3 after outflows of 47.3 tonnes in Q2.^[1]
• Bars and coins 268 tonnes, down 19% year on year; jewellery 313 tonnes, down 17%, the weakest third quarter in the WGC data series.^[1]
• Total demand including OTC was 1,369 tonnes, down 1% year on year; nine-month demand 3,881 tonnes versus the 2025 record of 3,884, with a record value of $566 billion.^[1]
• The LBMA (PM) gold price averaged $4,262 an ounce in Q3, up 23% year on year.^[1]
• Mine production was 1,071 tonnes, a third-quarter record; recycling fell 8% to 314 tonnes, a three-year low.^[1]
• Gold used in technology rose 3% year on year on AI-related manufacturing.^[1]
• The WGC expects central bank buying this year to at least match 2025.^[1]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoIn the third quarter gold demand was held up by central banks and ETFs, while retail buyers cut back.
• ConfirmadoThe WGC forecasts central bank buying in 2026 at no less than in 2025.
• Nossa leituraCentral bank buying may support the price on dips, but gold still fell in October and November. This is our conclusion.

Ainda não se sabe

• Which central banks bought the undisclosed two thirds
• Whether ETF inflows continue in the fourth quarter
• Whether bar, coin and jewellery buyers return if the price stays below $4,000

Quem é afetado

World. People who hold or buy gold and follow central banks and commodity markets

Fontes

1. World Gold Council: Gold Demand Trends: Q3 2026 3 de novembro de 2026 · oficial
2. The Business Times (Bloomberg): Central banks buy gold at fastest pace since 2024, WGC says 3 de novembro de 2026 · mídia