Fed holds rate at 3.75% to 4%, but two officials voted for a hike

What happened. On 28 October 2026 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, that is 3.75% to 4%. The statement came out at 2:00 pm New York time (18:00 UTC). Interest on reserve balances stays at 3.90%, and the primary credit rate at 4.0%.

Who voted against. The vote was 10 to 2. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted against because they preferred to raise the rate by another 1/4 point at this meeting. In September, when the rate went up to 3.75% to 4%, the vote was 12 to 0.

What changed in the text. In September the Fed said the economy was expanding at a solid pace; now it says a strong pace. Inflation still "remains elevated". Instead of saying the hike would support a timelier return to 2%, the statement now says more information will help the committee decide the policy needed for a timely return of inflation to its 2% goal. The committee says it will deliver price stability.

Why it matters. This is our reading, not a fact from the statement. The pause itself was expected: the day before, CNBC reported that markets overwhelmingly expected no change. What is new is two votes for a hike: some Fed leaders think policy is not tight enough yet. The Fed's rate helps set the price of the dollar, and investors in stocks, gold and bitcoin watch it.

What next. Kevin Warsh's press conference is today at 2:30 pm New York time (18:30 UTC). The next FOMC meeting is 8-9 December. We do not know how markets will react. This is not a forecast and not advice to buy or sell anything.

Fatos confirmados

• On 28 October 2026 the FOMC kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent.^[1]
• The vote was 10 to 2. Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack voted against, preferring to raise the range by 1/4 percentage point.^[1]
• The statement was released at 2:00 pm EDT.^[1]
• The statement says economic activity is expanding at a strong pace and inflation remains elevated.^[1]
• The September statement called the pace solid, and raised the range by 1/4 point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent by a 12 to 0 vote.^[3]
• Interest on reserve balances stays at 3.90% effective 29 October; the primary credit rate stays at 4.0%.^[2]
• Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference is at 2:30 pm New York time.^[5]
• The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for 8-9 December.^[4]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoTwo votes for a hike show the FOMC has members who want tighter policy.
• Nossa leituraA tougher tone could support the dollar and weigh on gold, stocks and bitcoin, while a softer one could do the opposite.

Ainda não se sabe

• What Kevin Warsh says at the press conference about December.
• How markets react: an open question, not a forecast.

Quem é afetado

United States, Worldwide. People with loans, dollar savings, stocks, gold or bitcoin, and anyone following interest rates

Fontes

1. Federal Reserve Board: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement 28 de outubro de 2026 · oficial
2. Federal Reserve Board: Implementation Note issued October 28, 2026 28 de outubro de 2026 · oficial
3. Federal Reserve Board: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (16 September 2026) 16 de setembro de 2026 · oficial
4. Federal Reserve Board: Meeting calendars and information 7 de outubro de 2026 · oficial
5. CNN: The Fed says it ignores politics. Its rate moves tell a more complicated story 27 de outubro de 2026 · mídia
6. CNBC: Fed expected to hold rates steady, but Warsh may point way to more hikes 27 de outubro de 2026 · mídia