Indonesia GDP grows 5.47% in the third quarter, beating forecasts

What happened. BPS, Indonesia's state statistics agency, published third quarter data on November 5. GDP grew 5.47% from the third quarter of 2025. Against the second quarter it grew 1.59%. Over the first nine months of the year the economy grew 5.45%.

How big is that. Growth was 5.61% in the first quarter of 2026, 5.29% in the second, and 5.04% in the third quarter of 2025. Economists in the BIG Consensus Insights survey by Bisnis Indonesia expected a median of 5.2%, in a range from 5% to 5.29%. They expected about 1.33% quarterly growth; the result was 1.59%.

What pushed it up. Per BPS, government spending was the fastest growing part of demand over the year, up 8.95%. Among industries, hotels and restaurants led with 11.22%. A BPS official quoted by Bisnis said every industry grew, with manufacturing, farming, trade, construction and mining adding the most.

Size of the economy. Quarterly GDP was 6,741 trillion rupiah at current prices and 3,633.2 trillion rupiah at constant 2010 prices. Provinces on Java make up 56.05% of the economy and grew 5.84% over the year.

What we do not know. How Bank Indonesia will respond. Whether this pace holds in the fourth quarter. How heavy state spending affects the budget.

Fatos confirmados

• Indonesia's GDP grew 5.47% in the third quarter of 2026 from the third quarter of 2025.^[1][2]
• GDP grew 1.59% from the second quarter of 2026 and 5.45% year to date.^[1]
• Growth was 5.61% in Q1 2026, 5.29% in Q2 2026 and 5.04% in Q3 2025.^[2]
• The median forecast of 11 economists in the BIG Consensus Insights survey was 5.2% year on year and 1.33% quarter on quarter.^[2]
• Government consumption was the fastest growing spending component over the year, up 8.95%.^[1]
• Hotels and restaurants were the fastest growing industry over the year, up 11.22%.^[1]
• Exports of goods and services grew fastest against the previous quarter, up 7.49%.^[1]
• GDP was 6,741 trillion rupiah at current prices and 3,633.2 trillion rupiah at constant 2010 prices.^[1][2]
• Java's provinces make up 56.05% of the economy and grew 5.84% year on year.^[1]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoIndonesia's growth sped up compared with the second quarter.
• ConfirmadoGrowth beat the median forecast of economists.
• Nossa leituraStrong data may support the rupiah and local stocks. This is our view.

Ainda não se sabe

• Bank Indonesia's next rate decision
• Growth pace in the fourth quarter
• How state spending affects the budget deficit

Quem é afetado

Indonesia, Southeast Asia, Asia. Emerging market and rupiah investors, readers in Indonesia and Asia, anyone tracking global growth

Fontes

1. Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS): Ekonomi Indonesia Triwulan III-2026 Tumbuh 5,47 Persen (Y-on-Y) 5 de novembro de 2026 · oficial
2. Bisnis Indonesia: Breaking! Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kuartal III/2026 Capai 5,47% 5 de novembro de 2026 · mídia