Kalshi raises $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation, nearly double May's

What happened. On 29 October Kalshi, a US platform where people trade contracts on the outcome of events, announced a $1 billion Series G round at a $40 billion valuation. Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management led it. According to Dealroom, Baillie Gifford, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Coatue and Andreessen Horowitz also took part.

How fast the valuation grew. In May Kalshi raised $1 billion in a Series F led by Coatue at a $22 billion valuation. So the valuation nearly doubled in five months. According to Dealroom, rival Polymarket was last valued at about $21 billion.

The business. According to the Wall Street Journal, as reported by Cointelegraph, Kalshi's non-sports markets now bring in more than $1 billion a year on an annualised basis. DefiLlama data show about $15.8 billion in trading volume over 30 days. This week the NBA named Kalshi and Polymarket preferred prediction market exchanges, and S&P Dow Jones Indices partnered with Kalshi on contracts tied to its benchmarks. Reuters says Kalshi wants to expand beyond event contracts and compete more directly with traditional exchanges.

The risks. Attorneys general in dozens of states argue Kalshi's sports contracts are illegal gambling. Kalshi says it operates as an exchange overseen by the federal regulator, the CFTC. Appeals courts have split, and New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to decide whether federal law overrides state rules. Chief executive Tarek Mansour says regulatory risk is "embedded into the valuation."

Our take. Money from big funds shows prediction markets are becoming part of the financial system. But the legal footing for sports is not settled. This is not advice to trade on or invest in prediction markets.

Fatos confirmados

• Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation and announced it on 29 October.^[1][2][3]
• The Series G round was co-led by Wellington Management and Sequoia Capital.^[2][3]
• Baillie Gifford, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Coatue and Andreessen Horowitz also took part.^[3]
• In May Kalshi raised $1 billion in a Series F led by Coatue at a $22 billion valuation.^[2][3]
• According to the WSJ, Kalshi's non-sports markets generate more than $1 billion in annualised revenue.^[2]
• According to DefiLlama, Kalshi recorded about $15.8 billion in trading volume over the past 30 days.^[2]
• Polymarket was last valued at about $21 billion.^[3]
• Attorneys general in dozens of states argue Kalshi's sports contracts are gambling. Kalshi says it operates as an exchange overseen by the CFTC. New Jersey has petitioned the Supreme Court.^[3]
• Kalshi wants to expand beyond event contracts and compete more directly with traditional exchanges.^[1]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoKalshi is now valued above Polymarket.
• Nossa leituraThis round may be the last before an IPO.
• Nossa leituraMore cash may mean more markets on financial data and indices.

Ainda não se sabe

• If and when an IPO happens.
• How the Supreme Court and the states settle the sports contract dispute.
• How revenue splits between sports and other markets in quarterly numbers.

Quem é afetado

United States, Worldwide. Traders and investors who follow prediction markets, fintech and crypto neighbours like Polymarket

Fontes

1. Reuters (via TradingView): Kalshi raises $1 billion at $40 billion valuation as it expands beyond prediction markets 29 de outubro de 2026 · mídia
2. Cointelegraph: Kalshi raises $1B at $40B valuation as non-sports revenue run rate tops $1B 29 de outubro de 2026 · mídia
3. Dealroom: Kalshi raises $1B at $40B valuation, doubling May's price tag 29 de outubro de 2026 · mídia