Malaysia keeps its OPR rate at 2.75% but warns about inflation

What happened. On November 5 the Monetary Policy Committee of Bank Negara Malaysia decided to keep the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 2.75%. The statement came out at 3 pm Kuala Lumpur time. It was the last meeting of the year.

What was expected. Bloomberg data cited by The Business Times show 17 of 23 economists expected a hold. Six expected the first hike in more than three years. Swaps earlier in the day priced about a 25% chance of a hike within six months.

What the bank says. So far this year, headline inflation averaged 1.8% and core inflation 1.9%. BNM expects both to edge higher in 2027, driven by geopolitics, high commodity prices and bad weather. The committee says it will watch cost pressures and demand. It expects 2026 growth above 5%.

Context. The rate has been 2.75% since a 0.25 point cut in July 2025. Neighbours are taking different paths: the Philippines raised its rate by 0.5 point to 5.5% in October, while Thailand holds at 1%. Malaysia exports oil and gas and subsidises fuel at home, so the oil price jump hit it more softly.

Why it matters. The tone is firmer, but there is no hike. That pushes the question into 2027. This is our reading, not the bank's words.

What we don't know. Whether BNM hikes in January. How far inflation rises in early 2027. How long fuel subsidies last.

Fatos confirmados

• On November 5, 2026 the BNM Monetary Policy Committee kept the OPR at 2.75%.^[1][2]
• Year to date, headline inflation averaged 1.8% and core inflation 1.9%.^[1]
• BNM expects headline and core inflation to edge higher in 2027 because of geopolitics, commodity prices and weather.^[1]
• The bank expects Malaysia's 2026 growth to be above 5%.^[1]
• The next BNM meeting is on January 21, 2027.^[1]
• 17 of 23 economists in a Bloomberg survey expected a hold; six expected a hike.^[2]
• The rate has been 2.75% since a 0.25 point cut in July 2025.^[2]
• Malaysian consumer prices rose 1.8% year on year in September.^[2]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoRinggit loan and deposit rates stay where they are for now.
• Nossa leituraBNM is preparing the ground for a possible 2027 hike without promising one. This is our view.

Ainda não se sabe

• Whether BNM raises its rate on January 21, 2027
• How far inflation rises in early 2027
• How long fuel subsidies stay in place

Quem é afetado

Malaysia, Asia. Anyone with a loan or savings in ringgit, and anyone who follows Asian interest rates

Fontes

1. Bank Negara Malaysia: Monetary Policy Statement 5 de novembro de 2026 · oficial
2. The Business Times (Bloomberg): Bank Negara Malaysia holds rates, vows vigilance as inflation pressures grow 5 de novembro de 2026 · mídia