Nvidia guarantees billions for AI clouds as their shares fall 30%

Nvidia stopped being just a seller of graphics cards some time ago. It invests in customers and helps them borrow so they can buy more of its systems. On Saturday CNBC looked at how the market has started to stress-test that model.

The numbers come from Nvidia's quarterly report of 26 August. As of 26 July, the company had committed to rent $36bn of capacity from AI clouds, usually for six years. The clouds can resell that capacity to other customers at better prices, which shrinks the commitment. In August Nvidia gave guarantees of up to $105bn on land, power and building leases at SB Energy's campus in Pike County, Ohio, where about 4.25 gigawatts of data centres are being built for OpenAI. Each phase has a 20-year lease. The guarantees end if OpenAI reaches a good enough credit rating. Nvidia also signed memorandums with large capital providers aiming to bring in more than $500bn of outside money for AI infrastructure over time.

In most of these deals Nvidia pays only if a partner fails, so the partners' health matters. Right now it looks shaky. Shares of CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN, which all spend more cash than they make, are down at least 30% this month. The cost of insuring CoreWeave against default (CDS) has risen above 11% a year. The company carries about $51.6bn of debt, and yields on its bonds due in 2031 and 2032 topped 15%. Nvidia has also agreed to buy up to $6.3bn of CoreWeave's computing if no one else does.

Other partners are stalling too. Australia's Firmus, an Nvidia-backed company, pulled its IPO plans this month. The UK's Nscale and SB Energy filed to list in September and have gone quiet since.

Nvidia chief Jensen Huang is calm. He told CNBC that demand for these clouds is "off the charts" and that what is missing is working capital. Nvidia shares just closed a third straight down week and have lost 7.6% in October.

The key caveat: these are risks, not losses. No guarantee has been triggered so far. But if rates stay high and demand for computing disappoints, Nvidia could end up paying for other people's debts.

Fatos confirmados

• Shares of CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN are down at least 30% in October.^[2]
• As of 26 July 2026 Nvidia's AI cloud commitments totalled $36bn, typically for six years.^[1][2]
• In August 2026 Nvidia gave guarantees of up to $105bn on leases at SB Energy's Ohio campus, where about 4.25 GW of data centres are planned for OpenAI.^[1][2]
• The guarantees end if OpenAI reaches a satisfactory credit rating or when the lease terms finish.^[1]
• Nvidia signed memorandums aiming to bring in more than $500bn of third-party capital for AI infrastructure over time.^[1][2]
• CoreWeave's CDS spread is above 11%, its debt is about $51.6bn, and yields on its 2031 and 2032 bonds topped 15%.^[2]
• Nvidia has agreed to buy up to $6.3bn of CoreWeave's computing if no other buyer takes it.^[2]
• Nvidia shares closed a third straight down week and are down 7.6% in October.^[2]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoPart of the AI clouds' risk sits on Nvidia's books through guarantees and commitments.
• Nossa leituraIf AI clouds cannot raise money, Nvidia may sell fewer chips or have to pay out on guarantees.
• Nossa leituraHigher bond yields for AI clouds could slow the data centre build-out.

Ainda não se sabe

• How much of Nvidia's commitments is already covered by capacity resold to other customers.
• Whether Nvidia will update its guarantee figures in its next report.
• When, or whether, Nscale and SB Energy will list.

Quem é afetado

United States, World. People who own AI stocks or follow the tech market

Fontes

1. NVIDIA (Form 10-Q): Quarterly report for the quarter ended July 26, 2026 26 de agosto de 2026 · oficial
2. CNBC: Nvidia's role as AI financier faces first big test as neoclouds take market hit 24 de outubro de 2026 · mídia