Oil prices today: Brent near $101 as Democrats win Congress

What happened. On Wednesday, November 4, oil fell in a volatile session. CNBC reports that Brent futures dropped 2.5% to $101.02 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell 2.6% to $93.61. WSJ gives different numbers: down 1.9% for both, with Brent at $101.65 and WTI at $94.33. It adds that both benchmarks were up earlier in the day. The gap is a matter of timing, not a contradiction.

Why it moved. The market is watching two things at once. First, Democrats won control of Congress, which WSJ says could complicate President Trump's foreign policy plans. Second, it is unclear whether Washington will pursue diplomacy with Tehran or launch another round of strikes. CNBC reports that Trump acknowledged the war with Iran played a role in his party's defeat. He also told the Financial Times the US had no immediate plans to strike Iran.

What analysts say. Priyanka Sachdeva of Phillip Nova said Trump's conflicting signals make it hard for traders to build strong conviction. She added that profit-taking and fewer speculative long positions were justified after the sharp rally in October. In the previous session Brent settled at its lowest level in nearly four weeks, CNBC reports.

Supply and inventories. Vortexa ship-tracking data shows flows of crude, condensate and refined products, excluding LPG, averaged 17.1 million barrels per day in October, down from 18.9 million in September. That is roughly three-quarters of pre-war levels. Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen says the recovery in Middle East shipments is weighing on physical cargo prices and could speed up the normalisation of refining margins. For consumers to feel it, though, refined product exports from Middle Eastern refineries must also recover, and that rebound is subdued so far.

A note on stocks. Per American Petroleum Institute (API) data cited by CNBC, US crude stocks fell by 5.27 million barrels in the week ended October 30. Eight analysts polled by Reuters had expected a rise of about 880,000 barrels. Official Energy Information Administration (EIA) data was due at 10:30 a.m. EST.

What we don't know. Where prices settle today. Whether Washington picks diplomacy or strikes. Whether official EIA numbers confirm the API figure. Our numbers come from two outlets that measured the market at different times.

Fatos confirmados

• On November 4, 2026, oil fell in a volatile session as investors awaited Washington's next move on Iran after Democrats won control of Congress.^[1][2]
• Per CNBC, Brent futures fell 2.5% to $101.02 a barrel and WTI futures fell 2.6% to $93.61.^[1]
• Per WSJ, Brent fell 1.9% to $101.65 and WTI fell 1.9% to $94.33. Both were up earlier in the day.^[2]
• In the previous session Brent settled at its lowest level in nearly four weeks.^[1]
• Democrats won control of the House and the Senate. Trump acknowledged the war with Iran played a role in his party's defeat.^[1]
• WSJ says the shift in congressional control could complicate Trump's foreign policy priorities, and traders do not know whether Washington will pursue diplomacy or new strikes.^[2]
• Priyanka Sachdeva of Phillip Nova said profit-taking and fewer speculative long positions were justified after the sharp rally in October.^[1]
• Per Vortexa, flows of crude, condensate and refined products, excluding LPG, averaged 17.1 million barrels per day in October versus 18.9 million in September, roughly three-quarters of pre-war levels.^[1]
• Per API, US crude stocks fell by 5.27 million barrels in the week ended October 30, while eight analysts polled by Reuters expected a rise of about 880,000 barrels.^[1]

Implicações

• Nossa leituraOil prices now lean heavily on news about US-Iran diplomacy, so daily swings stay sharp.
• ConfirmadoA Saxo Bank analyst says relief at the pump may arrive later than cheaper crude, until refined product exports from Middle East refineries recover.
• ConfirmadoPrices in this story are intraday snapshots and may differ by the close.

Ainda não se sabe

• Where Brent and WTI settle on November 4
• Whether Washington chooses diplomacy with Iran or new strikes
• Whether official EIA inventory data matches the API estimate

Quem é afetado

United States, Middle East, Global. Anyone following oil and fuel prices, traders and everyday drivers, readers in any country

Fontes

1. CNBC: Oil falls on Iran war uncertainty, US Democrats' midterm sweep 4 de novembro de 2026 · mídia
2. The Wall Street Journal: Oil Prices Fall as Investors Weigh U.S. Midterm Results, Iran Risks 4 de novembro de 2026 · mídia