US inflation runs hotter than expected in October: prices up 0.4% on the month

What CPI is. The consumer price index tracks how much a typical basket costs: food, housing, gasoline, cars, medical care and services. BLS builds it every month from prices at about 22,000 stores and 6,000 homes. Core CPI leaves out food and energy, which jump around, so it shows lasting inflation better. The Fed's target is 2% a year.

What came out. Headline CPI rose 0.4% in October (forecast 0.3%, September 0.6%). Core rose 0.3% (forecast 0.2%, also 0.3% in September and August). Shelter rose 0.3%, more than a third of the whole increase. Food rose 0.5%, beef 0.9%. Energy rose 0.7% after 5.2% in September, with gasoline up 1.0% seasonally adjusted. Used cars (−1.2%) and communication (−0.1%) got cheaper. The last official annual rates were for September: 3.7% headline and 2.6% core.

The chain markets expect. Inflation above forecast means the Fed is more likely to raise its rate, now 3.75% to 4.00%. Even before the report, markets priced a 98% chance of a 0.25 point hike in December (WSJ), and Fed Governor Christopher Waller said this morning a larger hike should be considered if CPI ran hot. Higher rates mean higher Treasury yields: when the safest paper pays close to 5%, big funds have less reason to hold risky stocks and bitcoin. Money leaves risk, buyers have less power to push prices up, and the dollar strengthens.

First reaction, by 14:05 UTC (Yahoo Finance data, against prices before 13:30 UTC). The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.90% to 4.94%. The DXY dollar index rose from 101.76 to 102.00. S&P 500 futures fell 0.7% and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.9%. Bitcoin slipped about 0.7% to around $73,700. Gold fell 0.4%. WTI oil fell 0.9% to $84.4, but it was already falling before the report.

Two caveats. Oil is a cause here, not only an effect: energy got more expensive because of the war with Iran, so a strong dollar does not guarantee cheap oil. And the ruble depends more on oil and the Bank of Russia than on US inflation. For bitcoin a hot CPI is a headwind for the coming weeks, not a verdict: one report does not decide the trend.

Fatos confirmados

• US CPI-U rose 0.4% in October 2026, seasonally adjusted, after 0.6% in September.^[1]
• Core CPI, without food and energy, rose 0.3% in October, as in September and August.^[1]
• The market forecast was 0.3% for headline CPI and 0.2% for core.^[2]
• BLS published no annual rate for October 2026: October 2025 data are missing because of the government shutdown.^[1]
• Before the report, markets priced a 98% chance of a 0.25 point Fed hike in December.^[3]
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a larger hike should be considered if October CPI ran hot.^[4]
• After the report the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.94%, the dollar index to 102.00, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.7%.^[5]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoOctober inflation came in above forecast on both the headline and core measures.
• Nossa leituraA Fed rate hike in December has become even more likely. This is our view.
• Nossa leituraHigher rates and a strong dollar usually weigh on growth stocks, gold and bitcoin and can drive outflows from bitcoin ETFs. This is our view.

Ainda não se sabe

• Whether the Fed hikes by 0.25 or 0.5 points
• How markets close the day
• Whether bitcoin ETFs see outflows this week

Quem é afetado

United States, Global. People who follow the Fed, the dollar, US stocks and crypto

Fontes

1. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index - October 2026 10 de novembro de 2026 · oficial
2. FXStreet: US Consumer Price Index rises 0.4% MoM in October vs. 0.3% expected 10 de novembro de 2026 · mídia
3. The Wall Street Journal: Treasury Yields Turn Higher on Fed's Waller Comments 10 de novembro de 2026 · mídia
4. Investing.com: Fed's Waller says larger hike should be considered if October CPI runs hot 10 de novembro de 2026 · mídia
5. Yahoo Finance: Market data: 10-year yield, DXY, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures, bitcoin, gold, WTI 10 de novembro de 2026 · mídia