US adds 165,000 jobs in October, far above the 65,000 forecast

What happened. At 8:30 a.m. Washington time on November 6 the BLS published the October 2026 jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000, well above the average gain of 48,000 a month over the prior 12 months. The Reuters poll was 65,000, with forecasts from 35,000 to 125,000.

Where the jobs came from. Professional and business services added the most, 70,000. Health care added 42,000, transportation and warehousing 25,000, mostly couriers. Manufacturing added 19,000. Other big sectors, including retail, construction and government, barely changed.

Unemployment and wages. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, inside the 4.1% to 4.3% range it has held since March. There are 7.1 million unemployed people. Average hourly earnings in the private sector rose 0.4% on the month to $38.00 and 3.1% from a year ago. Before the report, Reuters said economists expected 0.3% and 2.9%. The number of people working part time who want full time jobs rose by 339,000 to 4.8 million.

Revisions and context. August was revised from +133,000 to +186,000 and September from +29,000 to +60,000. According to Reuters, the Fed held its rate in the 3.75% to 4.00% range last week and economists expect a hike in December. The next jobs report is due December 4.

Fatos confirmados

• US nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October 2026; the unemployment rate was 4.1%.^[1]
• Economists polled by Reuters expected 65,000 jobs and 4.2% unemployment.^[2]
• Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month to $38.00 and 3.1% from a year earlier.^[1]
• Before the report, Reuters said annual wage growth was expected at 2.9%.^[2]
• August was revised to +186,000 and September to +60,000, a combined 84,000 more than reported.^[1]
• Professional and business services added 70,000 jobs, health care 42,000, transportation and warehousing 25,000, manufacturing 19,000.^[1]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoOctober hiring was much stronger than forecast and earlier months were revised up.
• Nossa leituraFaster than expected wage growth may support bets on a Fed rate hike in December. This is our view.
• Nossa leituraA tighter Fed usually weighs on bonds, tech stocks and bitcoin and supports the dollar. This is our view.

Ainda não se sabe

• How markets close the day after the report
• How much October will be revised
• What Tuesday's October inflation report shows

Quem é afetado

United States, Global. People who follow the Fed, the dollar, US stocks and crypto

Fontes

1. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: The Employment Situation - October 2026 6 de novembro de 2026 · oficial
2. Reuters: US job growth expected to pick up in October, with moderation in wage gains 6 de novembro de 2026 · mídia