World Gold Council cuts gold investment demand forecast to 200 tonnes

What changed. In its third-quarter report the WGC says investment is still the main source of demand growth in 2026. But it cut the expected gain over 2025 from 400 to 200 tonnes. Reuters reports it as a lower forecast for growth in gold investment. The reason is weaker bar and coin demand. Funds (ETFs) beat expectations.

The quarter in numbers. Total third-quarter demand, including over-the-counter (OTC), was 1,369 tonnes, 1% lower than a year earlier. Over nine months, demand of 3,881 tonnes almost matches the record 2025 (3,884 tonnes). Investment demand fell 14% to 479 tonnes. Bar and coin demand fell 19% to 268 tonnes, as investors waited for a clearer price trend, the WGC says. Physically backed funds added 211 tonnes after outflows in the second quarter. The WGC links the inflow to worries about public finances and inflation, even though bond yields rose sharply and the dollar got stronger.

Central banks. Buying rose 42% to 321 tonnes, the highest quarterly total since the fourth quarter of 2024 (Reuters). Poland and China led officially reported purchases. So far this year central banks bought 675 tonnes. The WGC now expects them to at least match the 848 tonnes of 2025. But buying looks sensitive to price, and the WGC stresses that this is not firm enough to count as a floor for the gold price.

Jewellery. Consumption fell 17% to 313 tonnes, the weakest third quarter in the WGC data series. High prices weigh on every region. The LBMA (PM) price averaged US$4,262 an ounce in the quarter, 23% higher than a year earlier.

What next. The WGC says that in the fourth quarter higher rates, rising bond yields and a strong dollar could weigh on demand, while fiscal worries, inflation risks, geopolitics and financial market stress may support it. For bars and coins it expects a modest decline over the year, and China could stay the only major market with growth. Reuters adds that spot gold hit a one-year low on Friday, October 30, and is 29% below its January record of $5,595 an ounce.

Nearby. We have already covered China's gold buying in October in a separate story. This one is about the WGC forecast. We do not offer price forecasts or buy and sell advice.

Fatos confirmados

• On November 3, 2026, the WGC published its Gold Demand Trends report for the third quarter.^[1][2]
• The WGC cut its average forecast for 2026 investment demand growth over 2025 to 200 tonnes from 400.^[2][3]
• WGC: ETF demand exceeded expectations, while bar and coin demand, although still fairly resilient, slowed notably in the second half.^[2]
• Total third-quarter demand, including OTC, was 1,369 tonnes, 1% lower year on year. Nine-month demand is 3,881 tonnes against 3,884 tonnes in record 2025.^[1]
• Investment demand fell 14% to 479 tonnes in the third quarter.^[1][3]
• Global bar and coin demand fell 19% year on year to 268 tonnes. The WGC says investors waited for a clearer price trend.^[1][3]
• Physically backed gold ETFs added 211 tonnes in the third quarter after outflows in the second.^[1][3]
• The WGC links the ETF inflow to worries about public finances and inflation. It came despite sharply higher bond yields and a stronger dollar.^[1][2][3]
• Central bank purchases in the third quarter rose 42% year on year to 321 tonnes, the highest quarterly total since the fourth quarter of 2024. Poland and China led officially reported purchases.^[1][3]
• Central banks have bought 675 tonnes so far in 2026. The WGC expects them to at least match the 848 tonnes bought in 2025.^[2][3]
• WGC: central bank buying looks sensitive to price, but the link is not stable enough to imply a firm floor for the gold price.^[2]
• Jewellery consumption fell 17% to 313 tonnes, the weakest third quarter in the WGC data series.^[1][3]
• The LBMA (PM) gold price averaged US$4,262 an ounce in the third quarter, 23% higher year on year.^[1]
• The WGC expects a modest full-year decline in bar and coin demand. China could remain the only major market with annual growth.^[2]
• Reuters: spot gold hit a one-year low on the Friday before the report and is 29% below its January record of $5,595 an ounce.^[3]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoThe investment forecast was cut because of bars and coins, not funds: the WGC itself says ETF demand beat expectations.
• ConfirmadoThe central bank estimate was raised while retail bar and coin demand weakens. The WGC adds that central bank buying depends on price.
• Nossa leituraThe split between retail buyers and central banks, in our view, shows that gold demand now rests on large buyers. This is not a price forecast.

Ainda não se sabe

• How demand will behave in the fourth quarter: the WGC lists factors on both sides and gives no exact figure
• Whether retail bar and coin demand will return and what will bring it back: the WGC names possible triggers but promises nothing
• How much central banks will buy in 2026: the WGC says at least 848 tonnes
• How the US elections will affect gold: the WGC calls both the policy consequences and the market reaction uncertain

Quem é afetado

Worldwide, China, Poland, Saudi Arabia. Anyone following gold and gold ETFs, readers in Saudi Arabia and other countries where World Gold Council reports are searched for

Fontes

1. World Gold Council: Gold Demand Trends: Q3 2026 3 de novembro de 2026 · oficial
2. World Gold Council: Gold Demand Trends: Q3 2026, Outlook 3 de novembro de 2026 · oficial
3. Reuters: WGC lowers outlook for gold investment demand growth as bar buying slows 3 de novembro de 2026 · mídia