IHSG falls 3.5%: Indonesia stocks close at 5,098 as foreigners sell

What happened. IHSG closed on 29 October at 5,098.06, down 184.26 points, or 3.49%. It opened at 5,305.20 and touched 5,320.90 early, then turned fast and fell below 5,200 before 10:00 Jakarta time. Turnover for the day was Rp10.13 trillion. Utilities fell the most, down 5.99%.

Who sold. By the end of the first session IHSG was down 2.64%. According to Indonesia Stock Exchange data quoted by IDNFinancials, foreigners sold Rp2.4 trillion of shares and bought Rp1.49 trillion. Net foreign selling was Rp912.37 billion. The biggest net foreign sales were in bank BBCA, at Rp203.52 billion, then BMRI and BBRI. BBCA fell 4.27% in the first session. Among Asia-Pacific emerging markets, IHSG was the weakest at that point: India's NIFTY rose 0.7%, the Philippines' PCOMP 0.68% and Malaysia's FBMKLCI 0.08%.

The backdrop. CNBC Indonesia lists the day's events. The US Fed kept its rate at 3.75-4.00%, but the vote was split: two members, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, backed a 25 basis point hike. The market puts the odds of a December hike at about 80%, and the US 10-year yield rose to 5.042%. US PCE inflation data was due in the evening Jakarta time. The outlet does not call this the single cause of the fall, and neither do we.

What came before. On 16 October IHSG fell 11%, its biggest one-day drop since 1998, Kontan reports, citing Reuters. The trigger was MSCI's proposal to move Indonesia from emerging market to standalone market status, a category whose stocks sit in neither the emerging nor the frontier indexes. The rupiah that day weakened to 18,070 per dollar. UBS estimated possible passive outflows at about $4 billion, and up to $19 billion with active investors. That is the bank's estimate, not a fact.

What comes next. MSCI opened a consultation with market participants running to April 2027, and said it will proceed with the reclassification unless there is clear evidence of better governance and market functioning. Our sources do not directly tie today's fall to MSCI.

What we don't know. What exactly was the main trigger on 29 October. How the market opens tomorrow. How the PCE data, released after Indonesian trading closed, will play out. This is an overview, not advice to buy or sell.

已确认的事实

• IHSG closed on 29 October at 5,098.06, down 184.26 points or 3.49%.^[1]
• The index opened at 5,305.20, touched 5,320.90 early and fell below 5,200 before 10:00 Jakarta time.^[1][4]
• Turnover for the day was Rp10.13 trillion; utilities fell the most, down 5.99%.^[1]
• By the end of the first session IHSG was down 2.64%, at 5,142.82.^[2]
• In the first session foreigners sold Rp2.4 trillion of shares and bought Rp1.49 trillion; net sales were Rp912.37 billion.^[2]
• The biggest net foreign sales in the first session: BBCA Rp203.52 billion, BMRI Rp104.89 billion, BBRI Rp67.33 billion.^[2]
• BBCA fell 4.27% in the first session.^[2]
• In the first session NIFTY rose 0.7%, PCOMP 0.68% and FBMKLCI 0.08%; IHSG fell the most among these indexes.^[2]
• The US Fed kept its rate at 3.75-4.00%; Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack backed a 25 basis point hike.^[1]
• The market puts the odds of a December hike at about 80%; the US 10-year yield rose to 5.042%.^[1]
• On 16 October IHSG fell 11%, its deepest one-day drop since 1998.^[3]
• MSCI proposed moving Indonesia from emerging market to standalone market status; the consultation runs to April 2027.^[3]
• On 16 October the rupiah weakened to 18,070 per dollar.^[3]
• UBS estimated possible passive outflows at about $4 billion, and up to $19 billion with active investors.^[3]

影响

• 已确认Foreign investors were net sellers of Indonesian shares in the first session on 29 October.
• 已确认Pressure on the index came from large banks, mainly BBCA.
• 我们的解读The fall is linked to global interest rates and to MSCI uncertainty at the same time.
• 我们的解读Until the MSCI consultation ends, Indonesia's market may stay sensitive to news about the index.

仍未知

• What was the main trigger of the 29 October fall.
• What the outcome of the MSCI consultation will be.
• How the US PCE data, released after Indonesian trading closed, will play out.

影响到谁

Indonesia, United States, Worldwide. People who follow the Indonesian stock market, emerging market funds and the rupiah

来源

1. CNBC Indonesia: IHSG Ditutup Anjlok 3,49% ke 5.098 2026年10月29日 · 媒体
2. IDNFinancials: Asing buang saham-saham ini saat IHSG anjlok 2,64% di sesi I 2026年10月29日 · 媒体
3. Kontan (Reuters): IHSG Anjlok 11%, Penurunan Harian Terdalam Sejak 1998 Usai Pengumuman MSCI 2026年10月16日 · 媒体
4. CNBC Indonesia: Breaking! IHSG Anjlok 3%, Saham BCA Turun 5%, Ini Penyebabnya 2026年10月29日 · 媒体