Saudi Arabia pumps the most oil since February, OPEC report shows

What happened. OPEC published its Monthly Oil Market Report. According to the figures Saudi Arabia itself sent to the group, it produced 10.563 million barrels per day in October, up from 8.372 million in September. That is the highest since February, when it reported 10.882 million.

Two numbers for one country. OPEC publishes two data sets: what countries report themselves, and an average of independent estimates, called secondary sources. Secondary sources put Saudi output at about 9.2 million barrels a day, up 970,000 from September. The gap with the official figure is about 1.4 million barrels a day, by our calculation.

The whole group. Based on secondary sources, OPEC+ produced 41.23 million barrels a day in October, 2.04 million more than in September. Saudi Arabia and Iraq drove most of the rise. Russia added 41,000 to 8.668 million. Reuters calculates this is about 97% of the 42.72 million pumped in February. Gulf output has been disrupted this year by the conflict around Iran and is now recovering.

Demand. OPEC left its demand forecast unchanged after six cuts in a row. World demand is seen growing by 180,000 barrels a day in 2026 to 105.72 million. A jump of 2.55 million to 108.28 million is expected in 2027. Argus notes that before the conflict OPEC expected growth of 1.4 million in 2026. China's demand is now forecast to fall by 70,000 this year to 16.81 million.

Stocks. OPEC estimates, as cited by Argus, that global oil inventories fell by 537 million barrels from their February peak to 8.043 billion barrels at the end of September.

已确认的事实

• Saudi Arabia told OPEC it produced 10.563 million barrels per day in October, up from 8.372 million in September.^[2]
• That is the highest since February 2026, when it reported 10.882 million.^[2]
• Secondary sources put Saudi October output near 9.2 million barrels a day, up 970,000 on the month.^[4]
• OPEC+ produced 41.23 million barrels a day in October based on secondary sources, up 2.04 million from September.^[2][3]
• Reuters calculates that is about 97% of the 42.72 million barrels a day produced in February.^[2]
• Russian output rose by 41,000 to 8.668 million barrels a day.^[2]
• World demand for 2026 is forecast at 105.72 million barrels a day, growth of 0.18 million.^[1][3]
• For 2027 the forecast is 108.28 million barrels a day, growth of 2.55 million.^[1][2][3]
• China's 2026 demand is forecast to fall by 70,000 to 16.81 million barrels a day.^[1][3]
• Global oil inventories fell by 537 million barrels from the February peak to 8.043 billion at the end of September.^[3]

影响

• 已确认OPEC+ oil supply is quickly returning toward its February level.
• 我们的解读If output keeps rising while demand stays weak, it could weigh on oil prices. This is our reading.
• 我们的解读The gap between Riyadh's own number and independent estimates makes real supply less clear. This is our reading.

仍未知

• Which Saudi figure is closer to actual supply
• Whether output keeps rising in November
• What OPEC+ decides at its next meeting

影响到谁

Global, Middle East. Anyone who follows oil, fuel prices and inflation

来源

1. OPEC: Monthly Oil Market Report, November 2026: Table 11-1 World oil demand and production balance 2026年11月11日 · 官方
2. Reuters (via CTV News): OPEC+ oil output in October nears pre-Iran war rate, led by Saudi Arabia 2026年11月11日 · 媒体
3. Argus: Opec keeps oil demand outlook unchanged 2026年11月11日 · 媒体
4. Barchart: Crude Oil Prices Fall on Diplomatic Optimism to End Iran War 2026年11月11日 · 媒体