Turkey inflation October 2026: 29.77% a year, 2.58% in a month

What was reported. Turkey's statistics office, TÜİK, published October data on November 3 at 10:00 local time. Prices rose 2.58% from September and 29.77% from October 2025. In September it was 1.84% for the month and 29.73% for the year. Since the start of 2026 prices are up 27.52%.

Above forecasts. In a Bloomberg HT survey, institutions expected 2.42% for the month and 29.59% for the year. Both numbers came in higher. The gap is small, but the direction is clear.

What moved. Food and non-alcoholic drinks rose 3.50% in the month and added 0.84 percentage points to the change in the overall index. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels rose 2.84% (0.34 points), and transport 2.02% (0.36 points). Over the year, food is up 27.73%, transport 36.39% and housing and utilities 40.24%. Food alone adds 6.81 points of the 29.77%.

Core prices. TÜİK's measure C, which leaves out energy, food, alcohol, tobacco and gold, rose 2.07% in the month and 28.28% over the year. Of 174 subclasses of goods and services, 134 rose, 29 fell and 11 did not change.

Pensions and pay. Uzmanpara reports that the four-month figure for the January raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur pensioners is now 8.29%. November and December data will complete the six-month picture. Whether the government adds a "welfare share" on top will be clear at year end. For civil servants and their retirees, the gap to inflation is 1.21% so far. With the 5.00% collective bargaining raise for January 2027, the total comes to 6.28%.

Rates and the lira. Fortune Türkiye reported on November 2 that the central bank cut its policy rate by 100 basis points, from 37% to 36%. It says it will decide meeting by meeting and with caution. BBVA Research, quoted by Fortune, expects the rate to stay at 36% until the end of the first quarter of 2027, with inflation staying near 30%. We covered the rate itself in a separate story. These sources give no lira exchange rate, so we do not quote one.

How to read it. One month is not a trend. But the annual rate has stopped falling: 31.51% in August, 29.73% in September, 29.77% now. The policy rate sits about 6 points above annual inflation. That is our calculation. The faster prices rise, the less real income lira savings earn. That is our view, not a forecast.

Where to look. What well-known traders and investors think about markets: https://freekonomist.com/en/crowd/ . This is an overview, not advice.

已确认的事实

• TÜİK: in October 2026 the consumer price index rose 2.58% in the month and 29.77% over the year; the rise since December of the previous year is 27.52%.^[1]
• In September inflation was 1.84% for the month and 29.73% for the year.^[2]
• A Bloomberg HT survey of institutions expected 2.42% for the month and 29.59% for the year in October.^[2]
• In the month, food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 3.50% (0.84 percentage points of contribution), housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 2.84% (0.34), and transport 2.02% (0.36).^[1]
• Over the year, food rose 27.73% (6.81 points of contribution), transport 36.39% (6.10), and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 40.24% (4.71).^[1]
• Measure C (excluding energy, food, alcohol, tobacco and gold) rose 2.07% in the month and 28.28% over the year.^[1]
• Of 174 subclasses, 134 rose, 29 fell and 11 were unchanged.^[1]
• TÜİK's next inflation release is on December 3, 2026.^[1]
• Annual inflation: 31.51% in August, 29.73% in September, 29.77% in October 2026.^[5]
• Uzmanpara: the four-month figure for the raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur pensioners is 8.29%; November and December data will complete the six-month picture, and whether a "welfare share" is added will be clear at year end.^[3]
• Uzmanpara: civil servants and their retirees have a 1.21% inflation gap so far; with the 5.00% collective bargaining raise for January 2027 the total is 6.28%.^[3]
• Fortune Türkiye: the central bank cut its policy rate by 100 basis points, from 37% to 36%, and will decide meeting by meeting, with caution.^[4]
• BBVA Research, per Fortune Türkiye, expects the rate to stay at 36% until the end of the first quarter of 2027 and inflation to stay near 30% until then.^[4]

影响

• 已确认October inflation came in above the Bloomberg HT survey on both measures.
• 已确认The January raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur pensioners currently rests on the four-month figure of 8.29%; the final number depends on November and December data.
• 我们的解读The 36% policy rate is about 6 points above annual inflation of 29.77%. This is our calculation.
• 我们的解读Fast price growth makes further rate cuts harder; the bank says it looks at the data. This is our view, not a forecast.
• 我们的解读When prices rise faster, the real income on lira savings falls. This is our view.

仍未知

• What inflation will be in November and December
• Whether the government adds a "welfare share" to the pension raise
• How the central bank reacts to this data at its next meeting
• How the lira behaves

影响到谁

Turkey, World. People who follow the Turkish economy, the lira and rates, and Turkish pensioners and workers

来源

1. TÜİK (TurkStat): Consumer Price Index, October 2026 2026年11月3日 · 官方
2. Bloomberg HT: Ekim'de aylık enflasyon yüzde 2,58 oldu 2026年11月3日 · 媒体
3. Uzmanpara (Milliyet): Son dakika: Emekli zammı için 4 aylık oran belli oldu! 2026年11月3日 · 媒体
4. Fortune Türkiye: TCMB Faiz İndirim Döngüsünü Başlattı 2026年11月2日 · 媒体
5. TCMB: Tüketici Fiyatları · 官方